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反内卷号角吹响,锂行业迎来积极变化
Xiangcai Securities·2025-07-29 07:53

Group 1: Macro Perspective - The Chinese government has initiated actions to combat "involution" in various industries, focusing on enhancing product quality and regulating low-price competition[3] - The recent meetings of the Central Economic Work Conference and the Central Finance Committee emphasize the need for a unified national market and the elimination of chaotic competition[9][14] - The "anti-involution" campaign is expected to reshape and invigorate the Chinese economy over the long term, addressing key economic bottlenecks[15] Group 2: Lithium Industry Insights - The lithium industry, as the upstream of the new energy vehicle supply chain, has seen intensified competition and a decline in lithium prices since 2023 due to excess capacity[4][16] - In 2024, China's lithium carbonate production capacity is projected to reach 1.3 million tons, with an output of 701,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.4%[16] - Recent regulatory actions, including the rectification of Yichun lithium mines and the suspension of operations at Zangge Lithium, signal a government effort to stabilize lithium prices and restore order in the industry[19][20] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The anti-involution movement is expected to create investment opportunities across emerging industries such as new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics, as well as traditional industries facing overcapacity issues[6][21] - The restructuring of various industries in response to the anti-involution campaign is anticipated to yield a series of investment prospects[5]