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有色金属周报:雅江与反内卷共振,工业金属价格上行-20250729
Tebon Securities·2025-07-29 08:13

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Views - Precious metals are expected to continue their upward trend, with gold prices rising and a favorable long-term outlook. The gold-silver ratio has reached a peak of over 100 this year, and as gold prices stabilize, silver prices are expected to rise to restore the ratio [5]. - Industrial metal prices are on the rise, driven by significant infrastructure projects, such as the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, which is expected to boost overall demand and support metal prices [5]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in precious metals, as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle and domestic monetary policies strengthen [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices have increased by 0.26% and silver by 2.24% in the week of July 21-25, 2025. The gold-silver ratio has decreased to 86.13, indicating potential for silver price increases [5]. 1.2 Industrial Metals - Prices for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel have increased by 1.8%, 1.7%, 0.7%, 3.4%, 3.7%, and 3.7% respectively. The overall demand is expected to rise due to major infrastructure projects [5][28]. 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide have increased by 7.5% weekly, with a year-on-year increase of 41.3%. Tungsten prices have also risen significantly, indicating a recovery in manufacturing demand [5][30][32]. 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium concentrate prices have risen by 10.5% weekly, while cobalt prices remain stable. Nickel prices have also increased, reflecting growing demand in the energy sector [5][35]. 2. Market Data - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a 6.70% increase, with specific segments like industrial metals and energy metals rising by 4.72% and 12.40% respectively during the week [36]. 3. Important Events Review - Notable events include President Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve, where discussions on interest rates took place, indicating potential future monetary policy changes that could impact the metals market [43].