碳酸锂周报：“反内卷”情绪快速切换，波动被放大-20250729

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate have limited improvement in the weak reality. The downstream and end - users have limited ability to accept high prices, but there are frequent disturbances on the supply side, and the influence of funds and sentiment remains significant. It is expected that lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. The recommended strategy is to hold put options, with an expected operating range of 64,000 - 81,000 [4][84] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Last week, lithium carbonate fluctuated upward, with a weekly increase of 15.82%. The trading volume reached 6.27 million lots (+1.98 million), and the open interest reached 491,100 lots (+113,800). The basis was at a discount of 7,620 yuan/ton [5][8] 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Lithium Ore - In June, China's lithium spodumene production was 6,450 tons of LCE, a month - on - month increase of 6.6%; lithium mica production was 16,800 tons of LCE, a month - on - month increase of 4.3%. Lithium concentrate imports decreased to 427,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%. In April, the amount of lithium spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China decreased to 58,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 49.3% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% [12][16][21] 3.2.2 Lithium Battery Recycling - In June, the recycling of waste lithium batteries was 18,366 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.8% [26] 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate - Last week, lithium carbonate production was 18,630 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%. In June, lithium carbonate imports decreased to 17,698 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. In June, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China were 10,226 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.2% [31][33] 3.2.4 Lithium Hydroxide - In June, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 35%, and the production was 24,450 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 25.8%. Exports were 6,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 56.1% [39] 3.3 Downstream Demand 3.3.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, lithium iron phosphate production was 77,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%. In June, the operating rate of iron phosphate was 56%, and the production was 229,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 56% [42] 3.3.2 Ternary Materials - Last week, ternary materials production was 15,502 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.2%. In June, imports and exports increased [47] 3.3.3 Ternary Precursors - In June, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 36%, and the production was 68,360 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 16.5%. Exports decreased in June [50] 3.3.4 Manganese Acid Lithium and Cobalt Acid Lithium - In June, the operating rate of manganese acid lithium was 33%, and the production was 11,536 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9% and a year - on - year increase of 19%. The operating rate of cobalt acid lithium was 57%, and the production was 9,730 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0% and a year - on - year increase of 20.4% [51] 3.3.5 Electrolyte - In June, electrolyte production was 159,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 45.6%. Exports of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased in June [54] 3.4 Terminal Demand 3.4.1 Power Batteries - In June, power battery production was 129.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.6% and a year - on - year increase of 52.9%. The installed capacity was 58.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 1.9% and a year - on - year increase of 36.0% [60] 3.4.2 New Energy Vehicles - In June, new energy vehicle production was 1.268 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 26.4%. Sales were 1.329 million units, a month - on - month increase of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 26.7% [63] 3.4.3 Energy Storage - In June, energy storage battery production was 41.65 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 13.9% and a year - on - year increase of 42.7%. In May, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 5.15 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 8.8% and a year - on - year increase of 18.7%; the winning bid capacity scale was 16.66 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 7.5% and a year - on - year increase of 16.3% [68] 3.4.4 Consumer Electronics - In June, China's smartphone production was 108.27 million units, a month - on - month increase of 19.0% and a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The production of micro - electronic computers was 31.59 million units, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% and a year - on - year increase of 6.6% [71] 3.5 Cost - Lithium ore prices rebounded. The price of 6% lithium spodumene concentrate increased by $75/ton, and the price of lithium mica increased by 460 yuan/ton [74] 3.6 Inventory - Total inventory decreased by 550 tons. Structurally, smelters' inventory decreased by 2,654 tons, downstream inventory increased by 1,544 tons, and other inventory increased by 1,660 tons. Last week, lithium iron phosphate inventory decreased by 168 tons, and ternary materials inventory increased by 229 tons [80][81] 3.7 Market Outlook - The recommended strategy is to hold put options, with an expected operating range of 64,000 - 81,000. On the resource side, there are frequent disturbances in domestic lithium mica supply, lithium spodumene production increases, and lithium ore imports decrease. On the supply side, last week's lithium carbonate production decreased slightly but remained at a high level, imported lithium salt volume decreased, Chile's lithium salt exports were low, and the recycling end continued to decline. On the demand side, the growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down. The production schedules of cathode and cell factories were stable. Last week, lithium iron phosphate inventory decreased and ternary materials inventory increased; energy storage battery production scheduling increased, and the winning bid scale of energy storage increased. On the cost side, the prices of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica rebounded significantly. In terms of inventory, overall inventory decreased, smelters' inventory decreased, and downstream and other inventory increased. Overall, the weak reality of lithium carbonate fundamentals has limited improvement, the downstream and end - users have limited ability to accept high prices, but there are frequent supply - side disturbances, and the influence of funds and sentiment remains significant, so lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate widely [84]