十年期国债利率或重回中枢

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current foundation of the bond bull market is difficult to reverse in the short - term. The impacts of anti - involution policies and the Yajiang Hydropower Project are long - term issues, and their short - term disturbances to the bond market are controllable [2]. - Even if supply - side reform 2.0 measures are introduced in the July Politburo meeting, it will take time for the policies to be implemented and for the PPI to turn positive, and the impact on the bond market reversal also needs time [2]. - There is still a probability of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025 [2]. - The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond will return to the range of 1.65% - 1.70% after the short - term calm of long - term topics such as "anti - involution" and infrastructure [3]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Bonds Last Week Data Review - Funding Rates: From July 21 to 25, DR001 rose from 1.36% to 1.52%, a 16BP increase; R001 rose from 1.40% to 1.55%, a 15BP increase. DR007 rose 16BP from 1.49% to 1.65%, and FR007 rose 25BP from 1.50% to 1.75% [8]. - Open Market Operations: The central bank's reverse repurchase投放 reached 16563 billion yuan, with a large total maturity of 17268 billion yuan, resulting in a net capital withdrawal of 705 billion yuan [8]. - Sino - US Market Interest Rate Comparison: The inversion of the Sino - US bond yield spread widened. The US 6 - month SOFR rate fluctuated around 4.20%, while the Chinese 6 - month SHIBOR rate rose from 1.59% to 1.61%. As of July 25, the 6 - month interest rate spread was - 259BP. The 2 - year/10 - year Sino - US bond yield spreads were - 247BP and - 266BP respectively, with a slight narrowing of the long - and short - term spreads during the week [14]. - Term Spreads: For Chinese bonds, the 10 - 2 year spread widened from 29BP to 30BP. For US bonds, the 10 - 2 year spread narrowed from 53BP to 49BP [14]. - Interest Rate Term Structure: Both Chinese and US bond yields pulled back last week. The Chinese bond yield curve steepened, while the US bond yield curve flattened. The overall pull - back range of Chinese bond yields was about 4BP - 6BP, and the middle - term US bond yields pulled back by about 5BP [15]. - Industrial and Fiscal Data: In June 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline. The general public budget revenue decreased by 0.31% year - on - year, with tax revenue recovering and non - tax revenue declining [19]. 3.2 Key Bond Market Events Last Week - LPR Remained Unchanged: On July 21, the 1 - year LPR was reported at 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR was reported at 3.5%, both remaining unchanged from the previous month [24]. - Bond Market Adjustment: Last week, due to anti - involution policy expectations and the Yajiang Hydropower Station theme, the bond market significantly adjusted. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield once pulled back to around 1.75%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond pulled back to around 1.97% [20]. - Exchange Measures and Central Bank Operations: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the Dalian Commodity Exchange issued notices to adjust trading limits, resulting in a more than 20% decline in trading volume. The central bank conducted a 4000 - billion - yuan MLF operation on July 25 and a 4958 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on July 28 [1][20].