有色金属周报（铅）：暂无突出矛盾，铅价维持区间整理-20250729

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The lead market currently has no prominent contradictions, and the lead price is expected to maintain a range - bound consolidation. The supply side shows an incremental trend with the expected resumption of production of primary lead and the slow recovery of recycled lead production. The market still has expectations for the downstream consumption peak season. As the lead price drops, the downstream hedging sentiment eases, and procurement may improve. The short - term lead price is expected to range between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Price Movement: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.30% to 16,750 yuan/ton, the closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract rose by 0.80% to 16,955 yuan/ton, and the London lead closing price (electronic disk) increased by 0.45% to 2,020.5 US dollars/ton [10]. - Basis: Relevant data shows the historical basis situation from 2022 - 2025, but no specific analysis of the current basis situation is provided [12]. 2. Supply - Side Analysis - Raw Material - Lead Concentrate: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 500 yuan/metal ton, and the imported lead concentrate processing fee decreased by 5 US dollars/dry ton to - 60 US dollars/dry ton. The tight ore situation remains unchanged, and the TC quotation is stable with a weakening trend. As of July 18, the smelter profit (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) was 74.6 yuan/ton [25]. - Primary Lead: The primary lead operating rate decreased to 63.37% month - on - month. Some smelters in Henan are under regular maintenance, and a smelter in North China has resumed production but not at full capacity. Some smelters in Central and East China have future maintenance plans. The weekly output of deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises in some regions has changed, with the total output increasing from 45,215 tons in the week of July 18 to 48,375 tons this week [26][33]. - Recycled Lead: The average price of waste batteries remained flat at 10,250 yuan/ton as of July 25. The scrap peak season has not started, and the arrival of waste batteries is still tight. The losses of recycled lead smelters fluctuated slightly. As of July 28, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale recycled lead enterprises was - 481 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale enterprises was - 706 yuan/ton. The raw material and finished product inventories of recycled lead decreased. The operating rate of recycled lead enterprises increased by 2.8 percentage points to 40.7%, and the weekly output recovered to 4.24 tons as of last Friday [40][46][49][50]. 3. Demand - Side Analysis - Lead - Acid Battery: The operating rate of lead - acid batteries increased by 0.9 percentage points to 71.86%. As the traditional peak season approaches, the production enthusiasm of electric bicycles has improved, with some enterprises' operating rates reaching about 90%. The operating rate of automotive batteries is around 70 - 80% due to weak domestic terminals and the impact of tariffs on some export orders [56]. 4. Import and Export Analysis - As of July 18, the export loss of refined lead was about 2,300 yuan/ton. As of July 25, the import profit was - 834.57 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [66]. 5. Inventory Analysis - Domestic Social Inventory: As of July 24, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 7.14 tons, showing an increase. Downstream procurement is mainly from primary lead smelters, and the inventory of mainstream smelters has decreased, but social inventory has increased [76]. - Exchange Inventory: As of July 25, the SHFE refined lead inventory was 6.33 tons, showing a month - on - month increase, and the LME inventory was 26.63 tons, showing a slight decrease [79]. - Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the production, export, import, consumption, and inventory data of primary lead and recycled lead from April 2024 to June 2025 [80].