周度经济观察：机构行为调整，市场上涨未完-20250729

Economic Overview - In June, industrial enterprise profits worsened further, with a year-on-year decline of 4.3%[9] - The general public budget revenue in June showed a year-on-year growth rate of -0.3%, marking a slight decline of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[4] - Government fund income in June increased by 20.4% year-on-year, a significant rise of 28.2 percentage points from the previous month[7] Market Trends - The equity market has continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3500-point level, while the bond market has seen significant adjustments, particularly in the 10-year and 30-year treasury yields[13] - Institutional investors are reducing bond assets and increasing equity assets, reflecting a reversal of behavior seen over the past three years[13] Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" policy has led to significant fluctuations in commodity prices, with expectations that inventory rebuilding and ongoing policy implementation may push prices higher[2] - The introduction of a child-rearing subsidy of 3600 yuan per child per year indicates a shift in policy focus towards consumer and household sectors, although its macroeconomic impact remains limited[12] Future Outlook - The bottom of industrial enterprise profit growth may have been reached, as PPI (Producer Price Index) is expected to stabilize, indicating that the peak pressure on corporate profits may be passing[10] - The ongoing active credit expansion is providing fundamental support for the equity market, with expectations of further upward movement in market levels[15]