2025年公用环保行业中期策略：不惧挑战，机遇长存

Industry Overview - The public utility and environmental protection industry is rated as "leading the market - A" with a focus on opportunities despite challenges [1] - The core conclusion emphasizes the deepening of electricity reform and the acceleration of green transformation [2] Electricity Supply and Demand - The electricity supply-demand pattern is becoming more relaxed, with a total electricity consumption of 4.8 trillion kWh in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [4][10] - The growth rate of electricity consumption is slowing, with the second industry showing a 2.4% increase and the third industry showing a 7.1% increase [4][10] - The new energy sector is entering a reform phase, with the "136" document establishing a mechanism for distinguishing between new and old projects, leading to cautious investment from new energy companies [4][10] Investment Recommendations - Thermal Power: Short-term coal price decline is expected to release profit elasticity, while long-term focus should be on the restructuring of profit models under market-oriented trading [5] - Hydropower: The long-term interest rate decline supports the scarcity and growth potential of hydropower assets, with recommendations for companies like Changjiang Electric and Huaneng Hydropower [5] - Nuclear Power: The approval of new nuclear power units is becoming normalized, with stable growth expected in nuclear power installations [5][49] - Green Power: Attention is needed on the pressure of electricity prices and the ability to absorb new energy, with recommendations for quality green power operators [5] - Gas: Focus on the demand for gas-fired power and the impact of price adjustments on corporate profits [5] Waste Management and Water Utilities - Waste management companies are expected to see improvements in accounts receivable and profit growth due to government debt reduction measures [7] - Water utilities are experiencing price adjustments and industry consolidation, with potential for cash flow recovery and profit enhancement [7] Domestic Control and Equipment Manufacturing - The importance of domestic control is increasing due to tariffs imposed by the U.S., with a focus on high-end scientific instruments and industrial equipment manufacturers [7] Hydropower Performance - Hydropower generation in the first half of 2025 totaled 5397.9 billion kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 2.31% due to high base effects [32] - The hydropower sector is entering a period of moderate growth, with limited new large-scale projects expected [32] Nuclear Power Development - The approval of 10 new nuclear power units in 2025 marks a significant step in the normalization of nuclear power project approvals [49][53] - The operational and approved nuclear power units are expected to contribute to stable growth in the sector [54][55]