PX下方空间有限，PTA跟随成本能源化工

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - Weekly Summary: PX had a staged breakthrough due to improved macro - atmosphere and unexpected device situations. PTA also had a staged breakthrough as market sentiment was released, with the market trading on the logic of eliminating backward production capacity [7]. - Future Forecast: Crude oil price increase is lackluster due to the market's cautious attitude towards US trade negotiations. PX may have a supply reduction with the potential shutdown of Zhejiang Petrochemical's 2 million - ton PX device. PTA has low processing fees and production losses but no new official reduction or maintenance plans. Polyester device maintenance plans are limited, and the weaving market remains weak. Overall, PX is expected to adjust in the range of 6,750 - 6,950 yuan/ton, and PTA in the range of 4,650 - 4,900 yuan/ton. The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Situation PX - Futures: The PX futures contract rebounded to around 7,000. On July 25, the closing price was 7,062 yuan/ton, up 252 yuan/ton or 3.70% from July 18. The settlement price on July 25 was 7,022 yuan/ton, up 214 yuan/ton or 3.14% from July 18 [13][15]. - Spot: The market negotiation and trading atmosphere were average, more active in the second half of the week. From July 21 - 25, the average basis of the main contract was - 173 yuan/ton, the average domestic spot price of PX was 6,751.8 yuan/ton, up 47.2 yuan/ton or 0.70% from the previous period [16][18]. PTA - Futures: The price center rose step - by - step. On July 25, the closing price of the main contract was 4,936 yuan/ton, up 192 yuan/ton or 4.02% from July 18. The settlement price on July 25 was 4,902 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton or 3.19% from July 18 [20][22]. - Spot: The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average. From July 21 - 25, the average basis of the main contract was - 4.50 yuan/ton. The average weekly arrival price of PTA in the Chinese market was 614.8 US dollars/ton, up 11.2 US dollars/ton or 1.85% from the previous period. The average spot price in the East China market was 4,819 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan/ton or 1.71% from the previous period [23][25]. 2. Device Operation Situation PX Devices - Domestic: Many domestic PX enterprises had different load - adjustment situations, such as Ningbo Daxie running at 70% load, and some devices of Sheng虹 Refining and Chemical reducing their loads [30]. - Asia: Asian PX devices in different regions also had various operation states, including startups, shutdowns, and load adjustments [32][33]. PTA Devices - Some PTA devices were under maintenance, like the 1.2 - million - ton device of Ningbo Taihua and the 2 - million - ton device of Hainan Yisheng. There were no new PTA device maintenance or restart plans this week, and the weekly operation rate remained stable [37][38]. 3. Fundamental Analysis Cost - Crude Oil: Without significant news, oil prices were in a stalemate. WTI crude oil's futures settlement price on July 25 was 65.16 US dollars/barrel, down 0.89 US dollars/barrel from July 18, and Brent crude oil's was 67.66 US dollars/barrel, down 1.62 US dollars/barrel from July 18 [43][45]. - Naphtha: The supply was abundant due to increased exports from the Middle East and Europe to Asia, and demand decreased as LPG replaced it in cracking devices. The weekly average price of CFR Japan was 572.65 US dollars/ton, and the weekly average production profit was 23.52 US dollars/ton [50][52]. - PX Spot: PX continued to reduce inventory, and prices rose steadily. The weekly average price of CFR China Main Port was 851.20 US dollars/ton, up 1.50% from the previous period; the weekly average price of FOB South Korea was 826.80 US dollars/ton, up 1.55% from the previous period [55]. Supply - PX Processing Margin: The profit was good, with the PXN weekly average at 280.82 yuan/ton, up 9.38% from the previous period, and the PX - MX weekly average at 111.90 US dollars/ton [56][58]. - PTA Processing Fee: The processing fee was at a low level due to raw material cost pressure from PX and poor demand. The average spot processing fee from July 21 - 25 was 228.17 yuan/ton [59][61]. - Inventory: As of July 25, PTA social inventory was 4.502 million tons, up 60,000 tons from the previous week. The inventory of PTA factories increased by 0.13 days, and that of polyester factories decreased by 0.20 days [65][67]. Demand - Polyester: The prices of polyester products fluctuated slightly, with different weekly average price changes. The average weekly production and sales of polyester were estimated at 70%. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 86.87%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 58.26% [70][79]. - Weaving: The off - season market continued, with weak demand in the grey fabric market. Most weaving factories faced losses, and new orders were insufficient [85][87].