瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250729

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For corn, the international corn price is under continuous pressure due to the high output prospect as the good rate of US corn remains high. In the domestic market, the corn supply is tight with low remaining grain in the Northeast and low channel inventory. Traders are reluctant to sell at low prices. Although the transaction rate of imported grain auctions has slightly increased, the actual transaction volume is limited and the delivery speed is slow. However, the low processing profit and开机率 of deep - processing enterprises and the relatively safe inventory of feed enterprises limit the upward momentum of corn prices. The corn futures price has been fluctuating at a low level recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - For corn starch, the industry's开机率 is at a low level in recent years due to continuous production losses, reducing supply pressure. But the demand in the civil and paper - making markets is poor, and it is the traditional off - season for downstream demand, so the supply - demand situation remains loose. The starch inventory has decreased slightly. The starch futures price has been fluctuating at a low level recently, and short - term observation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2302 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the monthly spread (9 - 1) is 87 yuan/ton; the futures holding volume of the active contract is 794,329 hands, down 11,231 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holdings is - 22,888 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 160,521 hands, down 7,358 hands; the basis of the main contract is 107.22 yuan/ton, up 18.38 yuan [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2666 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the monthly spread (9 - 11) is 81 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the futures holding volume of the active contract is 175,002 hands, up 1,570 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holdings is - 16,047 hands, up 9,412 hands; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 6,499 hands, down 100 hands; the basis of the main contract is - 3 yuan, down 18 yuan; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 364 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - CBOT corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 413.25 cents/bushel, down 5.75 cents; the total holding volume is 1,493,670 contracts, up 23,275 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 133,883 contracts, down 4,426 contracts [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2409.22 yuan/ton, up 1.38 yuan; the flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port is 2350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF price of imported corn is 1997.13 yuan/ton, up 3.86 yuan; the international freight of imported corn is 46 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - Corn starch: The factory - quoted price in Changchun is 2680 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang is 2880 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Shijiazhuang is 2840 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 401.85 million tons, in Brazil is 131 million tons, in Argentina is 53 million tons, in China is 295 million tons, and in Ukraine is 26.9 million tons, all unchanged. The predicted sown area in the US is 35.37 million hectares, in Brazil is 22.6 million hectares, in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares, and in China is 44.3 million hectares, all unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 30.5 million tons, down 56.9 million tons; at northern ports is 304 million tons, down 13 million tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 400.5 million tons, down 26.5 million tons; the monthly import volume is 16 million tons, down 3 million tons [2]. - Corn starch inventory: The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 131.1 million tons, down 3.5 million tons; the monthly export volume is 27,780 tons, up 4,060 tons [2][3]. - Feed production: The monthly output is 2762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons; the sample feed corn inventory days is 30.87 days, down 0.47 days; the deep - processing corn consumption is 106.24 million tons, down 3.81 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Corn starch processing profit: In Shandong is - 117 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; in Hebei is - 52 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin is - 66 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. -开机率: The alcohol enterprise开机率 is 38.63%, up 0.29%; the starch enterprise开机率 is 45.46%, down 4.83% [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Corn: The 20 - day historical volatility is 6.96%, up 0.21%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.49%, down 0.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.05%, up 0.61%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.05%, up 0.61% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of the week ending July 24, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1,522,174 tons, compared with the revised 984,901 tons last week and 1,070,719 tons in the same period last year [2]. - As of July 24, the harvest progress of Brazil's second - season corn in the 2024/2025 season was 68%, 13 percentage points higher than last week but still behind the 91% in the same period last year [2]. - As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good rate of US corn was 73%, in line with expectations, down from 74% last week and up from 68% in the same period last year [2].