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全国生育补贴政策落地,关注轻工婴裤条线
Changjiang Securities·2025-07-29 09:41

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The implementation of the national childcare subsidy policy is expected to support the birth rate and subsequently boost the consumption of baby diapers. The annual cash subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child for those under three years old is anticipated to have a positive impact on the market [2][6][13] - The report highlights the success of previous local subsidy trials, such as in Tianmen, Hubei, where birth rates increased significantly following the introduction of supportive measures [7][8] Summary by Sections Event Description - On July 28, the Central Committee and the State Council released the "Implementation Plan for the Childcare Subsidy System," which will provide cash subsidies starting January 1, 2025, for children under three years old [6] Event Commentary - The national rollout of the childcare subsidy policy is expected to enhance its effectiveness, with over 20 provinces already testing similar measures. The report cites Tianmen's experience, where birth rates increased by 17% in 2024, marking a turnaround after years of decline [7][8] - The report estimates that the total subsidy expenditure could exceed 100 billion yuan based on projected birth rates from 2022 to 2024 [13] Company Recommendations - HaoYue Care: Expected to have over 50% of its sales from baby diapers this year, with a projected market share increase from approximately 4% in 2019 to 9% by 2024 [8] - Baiya Co.: Anticipated to have about 3% of its sales from baby diapers in 2024, with growth driven by e-commerce and regional expansion [8] - Hengan International: Expected to have a 6% sales share from baby diapers in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 58% and an estimated dividend yield of 6.4% [8]