Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-29 09:52Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton market is in a destocking state, with tight supply before the new cotton is on the market. The demand side shows characteristics of the off - season in the textile industry, with low profitability and a decreasing operating rate of spinning enterprises. The new cotton planting area has increased, but there are high - temperature risks in some areas of Xinjiang. As prices rise, downstream procurement is cautious, demand is weak, and the upward momentum of the market is gradually weakening. The cotton 2509 contract has recently declined, showing an adjustment trend. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on weather and the results of Sino - US trade negotiations. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13,925 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closed at 19,995 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan. - Cotton futures' top 20 net positions were - 27,006 hands, an increase of 6,225 hands; cotton yarn futures' top 20 net positions were - 264 hands, an increase of 293 hands. - The main contract positions of cotton were 413,662 hands, a decrease of 55,334 hands; those of cotton yarn were 7,641 hands, a decrease of 1,770 hands. - Cotton warehouse receipts were 9,156 sheets, a decrease of 70 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 91 sheets, unchanged. - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,580 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) was 20,720 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. [2] 现货市场 - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,721 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) was 22,116 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan. - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale tariff) was 14,430 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) was 23,994 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons. - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,140 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton nationwide was 850,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons. [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. - The profit of imported cotton was 1,179 yuan/ton, an increase of 119 yuan; the commercial inventory of cotton nationwide was 2.8298 million tons, a decrease of 0.6289 million tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days were 23.86 days, an increase of 1.52 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 35.46 days, an increase of 2.57 days. - The monthly output of cloth was 2.779 billion meters, an increase of 0.109 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn was 2.065 million tons, an increase of 0.114 million tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5266714 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.1688977 billion US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.2048207 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.0583566 billion US dollars. [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options was 16.15%, an increase of 1.88 percentage points; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options was 16.14%, an increase of 1.87 percentage points. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 8.65%, an increase of 0.45 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 8.52%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points. [2] Industry News - As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 55%, compared with 57% the previous week and 49% the same period last year. - On Monday, the December contract of ICE cotton closed up 0.1%, the cotton 2509 contract fell 1.87%, and the cotton yarn 2509 contract fell 1.91%. [2]