Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-29 09:51Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Overall Market Situation: On July 28, ICE rapeseed futures weakened due to the decline of some competitive vegetable oil prices and the good weather in Canada boosting the yield expectation of current field crops. The U.S. soybean good rate is at a high level in the same period, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. The Sino - U.S. economic and trade talks are ongoing, and the market is closely watching whether a trade agreement can be reached [2]. - Rapeseed Meal: In the domestic market, the high probability of oil mills operating and the continuous inventory accumulation of soybean meal suppress the price of the rapeseed meal market. There is an expectation of a decline in pig inventory and the government's emphasis on reducing the use of soybean meal, which reduces the demand expectation. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases brings support to the forward market. Near - month rapeseed arrivals are scarce, and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand for rapeseed meal provides some support. But the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal market continues to fluctuate weakly [2]. - Rapeseed Oil: High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil increased while exports declined in July 1 - 25, which restricts palm oil prices. However, the significant increase in Indonesian exports, low inventory levels, and positive news in the U.S. and Indonesian biodiesel sectors boost the oil market. In the domestic market, it is the off - season for oil consumption, and the supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose. The high inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills restricts market prices. But the decrease in the oil mill operation rate and fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter reduce supply - side pressure. Supported by the strengthening of soybean oil, rapeseed oil prices rose synchronously, with increased short - term fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil futures is 9492 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2660 yuan/ton, unchanged; the active contract of ICE rapeseed is 696.5 Canadian dollars/ton, down 3.4 Canadian dollars; and the active contract of rapeseed is 5140 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan [2]. - Spreads: The rapeseed oil monthly spread (9 - 1) is 50 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the rapeseed meal monthly spread (9 - 1) is 281 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 134 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 130 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - Positions: The main - contract positions of rapeseed oil are 196655 lots, down 4683 lots; those of rapeseed meal are 453220 lots, down 15106 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 19614 lots, up 3865 lots; for rapeseed meal are 19712 lots, down 5128 lots [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3487, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal is 0, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9540 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the average price is 9580 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2530 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import cost of imported rapeseed is 4948.52 yuan/ton, down 32.85 yuan [2]. - Substitute Prices: The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8340 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8920 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2850 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price Differences: The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1220 yuan/ton, unchanged; between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 570 yuan/ton, unchanged; between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 320 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The oil - meal ratio is 3.63, up 0.02 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and Imports: The global predicted annual production of rapeseed is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual predicted production of rapeseed in some regions is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume in the current month is 18.45 million tons, down 15.1 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - Inventory and Operation Rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 20 million tons, up 5 million tons; the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 14.93%, down 0.79%. The import rapeseed crushing profit is 185 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 9.55 million tons, up 0.3 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.9 million tons, up 0.7 million tons. In the East China region, rapeseed oil inventory is 56.27 million tons, down 2.18 million tons; rapeseed meal inventory is 33.41 million tons, down 1.72 million tons. In the Guangxi region, rapeseed oil inventory is 5.55 million tons, down 0.05 million tons; in the South China region, rapeseed meal inventory is 26.1 million tons, down 0.9 million tons [2]. - 提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil delivery volume is 3.27 million tons, up 0.36 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal delivery volume is 3.43 million tons, up 1.11 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The current - month production of feed is 2762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons; the current - month production of edible vegetable oil is 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The current - month total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4707.6 billion yuan, up 129.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 24.53%, up 0.66%; that of at - the - money put options is 24.53%, up 0.66%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 16.48%, down 0.04%; that of at - the - money put options is 16.48%, down 0.04% [2]. - Historical Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 15.79%, down 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 16.15%, down 0.57%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 11.14%, up 0.24%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 12.28%, up 0.14% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 28, ICE rapeseed futures weakened due to the decline of some competitive vegetable oil prices and the good weather in Canada boosting the yield expectation of current field crops. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures closed down 4.90 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 695.90 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good rate of U.S. soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, 68% in the previous week, and 67% in the same period last year. The good rate of U.S. soybeans is still at a high level in the same period, and the weather in the U.S. soybean - producing areas is good, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest [2].