Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-29 09:51Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost of nickel resource supply has increased due to the restrictions on the issuance of the PNBP policy by the Indonesian government. However, the production capacity of nickel iron in Indonesia has been accelerating, and the production has rebounded significantly. Recently, the price of nickel iron has dropped significantly, weakening the support of raw material costs [2]. - Steel mills are facing increasing pressure of cost - price inversion and are in a loss state across the board. They are forced to increase production cuts. In addition, domestic anti - involution measures may accelerate the alleviation of the oversupply situation, and the production of stainless steel is expected to decline further [2]. - Entering the traditional consumption off - season, with increased uncertainty in the macro - market and still existing pressure on export demand, downstream buyers are hesitant and have a poor acceptance of high - priced goods. The destocking of domestic inventories is not satisfactory, and attention should be paid to the destocking performance brought about by subsequent production cuts [2]. - Technically, the trading volume and open interest are decreasing, and both long and short positions are cautious. Attention should be paid to the M10 support level. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,920 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 80 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts is 0 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 33,195 lots, with a daily increase of 1,484 lots. The open interest of the main contract is 103,270 lots, with a daily decrease of 9,143 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 103,296 tons, with no change [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,500 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 150 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 80 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of nickel iron is 22,600 metal tons, with a decrease of 1,300 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, with a decrease of 472.3 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel iron is 1.0414 million tons, with an increase of 193,200 tons [2]. - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 122,450 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 750 yuan/ton. The average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 910 yuan/nickel point, with no change [2]. - The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, with a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.744 million tons, with a decrease of 40,700 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 605,700 tons, with a decrease of 15,200 tons [2]. - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, with a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, with an increase of 71.8071 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, with an increase of 1,000 units [2]. - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, with a decrease of 2,900 units. The monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, with a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 28, local time, the economic and trade teams of China and the United States held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden [2]. - The US Treasury Department announced on Monday that it expects to borrow nearly $1.01 trillion in net terms in the third quarter, more than $45 billion higher than the estimate announced in April. Excluding the impact of a lower cash balance at the beginning of the quarter, it is $6 billion higher than the April expectation [2]. - US President Trump said that the United States has reached a tariff agreement with the European Union at a 15% tax rate. He also said that the EU will increase its investment in the United States by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy US energy products worth $750 billion [2].