Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-29 09:51Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The polysilicon market continued to rebound today, mainly due to the continued price increase by leading silicon wafer manufacturers. However, there was little action from downstream photovoltaic modules, resulting in poor transmission in the industrial chain. With potential supply increases, uncertain demand growth, and considering policy and macro - economic factors, it is recommended to temporarily observe or consider laying out put options [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the main polysilicon contract was 50,805 yuan/ton, up 1,400 yuan; the main position volume was 140,638 lots, up 4,343 lots. The price difference between August and September polysilicon was - 75 yuan, down 50 yuan; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon was 41,455 yuan/ton, up 965 yuan [2]. - Spot Market: The spot price of polysilicon was 46,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was - 2,905 yuan/ton, up 1,620 yuan. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower - type, dense, and re - feed polysilicon were 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2]. - Upstream: The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract was 9,350 yuan/ton, up 435 yuan; the spot price was 9,950 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume was 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons. The monthly output was 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the total social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2]. - Industry: The monthly output of polysilicon was 95,000 tons, down 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 1,113 tons, up 320 tons. The spot price of imported polysilicon in China was 6.01 US dollars/kg, up 0.98 US dollars; the monthly average import price was 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars [2]. - Downstream: The monthly output of solar cells was 6.7386 million kilowatts, down 318,300 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells was 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 88,975,860 units, down 14,424,120 units; the monthly import volume was 11,095,900 units, down 1,002,590 units; the monthly average import price was 0.31 US dollars/unit, down 0.01 US dollars. The comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon was 26.63, up 4.34 [2]. 3.2 Industry News The market price of photovoltaic silicon wafers continued to rise. With the increase in polysilicon prices and positive industry policy signals, the market expected silicon wafer prices to rise. Downstream battery enterprises began to accept price - increased orders, prompting silicon wafer manufacturers to raise prices. Leading enterprises raised their quotes, with 183N rising to 1.2 yuan/piece, 210RN to 1.35 yuan/piece, and 210N to 1.55 yuan/piece [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: Some domestic polysilicon production bases or production lines are gradually resuming production, but the production capacity will be released in August, having limited impact on July's supply. Although there is no significant change in recent production data, a potential supply increase trend is emerging [2]. - Demand: The demand from the downstream photovoltaic industry is a key factor. The overall operating rate of the silicon wafer industry decreased slightly, and the new order transaction activity of silicon materials increased, indicating that the wait - and - see sentiment of silicon wafer enterprises is being digested. However, photovoltaic module manufacturers are pressing down on prices when purchasing polysilicon due to the price war, and the demand - side support is insufficient. Next week, if the new quotes of silicon wafer enterprises can be implemented, it will stimulate the demand for polysilicon; otherwise, the growth of polysilicon demand will be limited [2].