瑞达期货铁矿石产业链日报-20250729

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the I2509 contract fluctuated with a slight upward trend. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has deployed eight key tasks for the second half of the year, including formulating a plan to enhance the matching of consumer goods supply and demand to boost consumption. In terms of supply and demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil increased this period, while the arrivals decreased. The domestic port inventory continued to rise, but the year - on - year decline widened. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills remained flat, and the pig iron output decreased slightly but remained above 2.4 million tons, so the demand support still exists. Overall, the expectation of the meeting fermented, and the sharp rise in steel prices supported the increase in furnace materials. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA form a golden cross at a low level, and the green column shrinks. It is recommended to conduct intraday short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 798 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the trading volume was 482,200 lots, down 7,237 lots; the spread between the I 9 - 1 contracts was 27.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 13,772 lots, up 12,027 lots; the Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts were 3,400 lots, unchanged; the quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract as of 15:00 was 102.7 US dollars/ton, up 1.91 US dollars [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 841 yuan/dry ton, up 5 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 826 yuan/dry ton, up 7 yuan; the price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 728 yuan/dry ton, up 5 yuan; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 28 yuan, down 5 yuan; the 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 100.10 US dollars/ton, down 2.50 US dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.41, unchanged; the estimated import cost was 824 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipments (weekly) were 32.009 million tons, up 0.918 million tons; the arrivals at 47 ports in China (weekly) were 23.197 million tons, down 1.921 million tons; the iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 143.9568 million tons, up 0.1417 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 88.8522 million tons, up 0.6306 million tons; the iron ore imports (monthly) were 105.95 million tons, up 7.82 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) were 23 days, up 2 days; the daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 411,000 tons, up 4,600 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 64.68%, up 0.68 percentage points; the iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 409,000 tons, down 43,500 tons; the BDI index was 2,226, down 31 [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 24.68 US dollars/ton, up 0.14 US dollars; the freight rate of iron ore from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.18 US dollars/ton, down 0.24 US dollars; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.48%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.78%, down 0.14 percentage points; the domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 83.18 million tons, down 3.36 million tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 21.76%, down 0.38 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 17.66%, down 0.02 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 21.45%, down 1.25 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 22.91%, up 1.13 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the global iron ore shipments were 32.009 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.918 million tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 27.559 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.039 million tons. The Australian shipments were 18.596 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.302 million tons, of which the volume shipped from Australia to China was 15.504 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.068 million tons. The Brazilian shipments were 8.964 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.262 million tons [2] - From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the arrivals at 47 ports in China were 23.197 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.921 million tons; the arrivals at 45 ports in China were 22.405 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.307 million tons; the arrivals at the six northern ports were 11.573 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.319 million tons [2]