瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20250729

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Considering short - term enterprise malfunctions, the probability of a decrease in urea production is high. Domestic agricultural demand is advancing slowly, with only limited local agricultural top - dressing demand and weak rigid support. As the autumn fertilizer production stage is approaching, the industrial demand for compound fertilizers leads to appropriate low - price purchases, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is rising steadily. However, due to the high - temperature and high - humidity weather, some production is still restricted. Recently, domestic urea demand is weak, and the overall order - taking and shipment of urea factories have slowed down. Although the inventory of domestic urea enterprises continues to decline but at a narrowing rate due to some goods being in the process of export collection, short - term collection is still ongoing, and some enterprise overhauls will reduce the inventory level to a certain extent, but weak domestic demand will affect the overall inventory reduction amplitude. It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1730 - 1800 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1744 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 26 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the position of the main contract is 152,980 lots, down 144 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 26,093 lots, down 5234 lots; the exchange warehouse receipts are 2900 sheets, unchanged [3] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, and Anhui have decreased, with Hebei, Henan, and Shandong down 20 yuan/ton, and Anhui down 30 yuan/ton. The price in Jiangsu is down 10 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remain unchanged at 430 US dollars/ton and 425 US dollars/ton respectively. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 16 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan [3] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 54.3 million tons, up 0.2 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 85.88 million tons, down 3.67 million tons. The operating rate of urea enterprises is 83.59%, down 0.87%; the daily urea output is 193,500 tons, down 2000 tons. The urea export volume is 7 million tons, up 7 million tons; the monthly output of urea is 6,031,340 tons, down 261,890 tons [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 33.58%, up 1.03%; the operating rate of melamine is 65.2%, up 0.96%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 104 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 499 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 4.1682 billion tons, down 0.6408 billion tons; the weekly output of melamine is 32,400 tons, up 500 tons [3] 3.5 Industry News - As of July 23, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 85.88 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.67 million tons, or 4.10%. As of July 24, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 54.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.2 million tons, or 0.37%. As of July 24, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3547 billion tons, a decrease of 0.014 billion tons from the previous period, or 1.02%, and the capacity utilization rate was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.87% from the previous period [3] 3.6 Suggestions for Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [3]