有色延续偏弱震荡

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall non - ferrous sector continued its weak and volatile trend due to the rebound of the overseas US dollar index and the cooling domestic market sentiment [4][5][6]. - For Shanghai copper, the main contract price fluctuated weakly below 79,000 yuan. After the end of long - term order delivery near the end of the month, the market's sales sentiment weakened, and the spot premium increased. Technically, the price broke below 79,000 yuan, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average [4]. - For Shanghai aluminum, the main contract price dropped slightly in the morning and then oscillated narrowly around 20,600 yuan. The position decreased continuously, and the 8 - 9 month spread rebounded. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the support of the 40 - day moving average [5]. - For Shanghai nickel, the main contract price oscillated downward, breaking below 122,000 yuan, and the position decreased continuously. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 122,000 - yuan level [6]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - For copper, heavy rainfall in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region had little impact on the main distribution areas of refined copper rod factories. Currently, factories in North China are operating stably, and logistics and transportation are not affected [8]. - For aluminum, heavy rainfall in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region damaged some roads and hindered traffic. However, the areas where aluminum profile manufacturers are located received less rainfall, and overall production remained stable. Only a few enterprises reported that raw material transportation was affected [9]. - For nickel, on July 29, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,100 - 123,800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 750 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average premium of Jinchuan No. 1 nickel was 2,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel were in the range of - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [10]. Group 4: Relevant Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper month spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][19]. Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum month spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][26][28]. Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, nickel month spread, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][39][40].