国债期货日报：等待不确定性落地-20250729

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: July 29, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report - Analyst: Gao Xiang from Nanhua Research Institute [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Trading strategy: Trading desks are advised to wait and see for now, waiting for the uncertainty to clear up [2][4] - Market outlook: The bond market pressure exceeded expectations. The market was weak in the morning due to Sino-US negotiations, and small rumors during the session pushed up commodities while pressuring the bond market. The market is still expecting policy support. With the Politburo meeting, Sino-US negotiation results, and FOMC meeting approaching, it's better to wait for the negative factors to materialize [4] Group 4: Market Analysis Market Performance - Treasury bond futures opened lower, with prices falling throughout the day. T2509 dropped 0.27 yuan, erasing the previous day's rebound. All contracts in the market declined significantly [2] Fundamentals - The funds situation improved today, with an OMO net injection of 234.4 billion yuan. The interbank overnight rate dropped, but non-bank institutions faced tight liquidity, with GC001 rising to 1.66% [2] Group 5: Data Summary Contract Prices and Changes | Contract | 2025-07-29 Price | 2025-07-28 Price | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2509 | 102.302 | 102.364 | -0.062 | | TF2509 | 105.55 | 105.72 | -0.17 | | T2509 | 108.14 | 108.4 | -0.26 | | TL2509 | 117.89 | 118.8 | -0.91 | [5] Contract Positions and Changes | Contract | 2025-07-29 Position (lots) | 2025-07-28 Position (lots) | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS Contract | 110,965 | 113,761 | -2,796 | | TF Contract | 199,964 | 198,868 | 1,096 | | T Contract | 235,144 | 234,352 | 792 | | TL Contract | 163,084 | 158,720 | 4,364 | [5] Basis and Changes | Contract | 2025-07-29 Basis | 2025-07-28 Basis | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS Basis (CTD) | -0.0024 | 0.0161 | -0.0185 | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.0398 | 0.0678 | -0.028 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.047 | 0.0971 | -0.0501 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.2624 | 0.4972 | -0.2348 | [5] Trading Volume and Changes | Contract | 2025-07-29 Volume (lots) | 2025-07-28 Volume (lots) | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS Main Contract | 40,325 | 43,197 | -2,872 | | TF Main Contract | 59,938 | 71,923 | -11,985 | | T Main Contract | 77,831 | 78,985 | -1,154 | | TL Main Contract | 140,838 | 120,609 | 20,229 | [5] Repo Rates and Changes | Rate | 2025-07-29 Rate | 2025-07-28 Rate | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DR001 | 1.4621% | 1.5174% | -0.0553% | | DR007 | 1.5806% | 1.6523% | -0.0717% | | DR014 | 1.6388% | 1.6686% | -0.0298% | [5] Repo Trading Volume and Changes | Rate | 2025-07-29 Volume (billion yuan) | 2025-07-28 Volume (billion yuan) | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DR001 | 225.265468 | 240.185631 | -14.920163 | | DR007 | 16.506121 | 14.265304 | 2.240817 | | DR014 | 0.7336 | 0.587261 | 0.146339 | [5]