市场降温叠加库存再度施压，铜价短期区间回调

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are likely to maintain a volatile and weak pattern. Supply-side short-term disruptions are offset by the release of new smelting capacity. The off-season effect on the demand side suppresses the spot premium. The increase in photovoltaic installations offsets part of the decline in consumption, but the impact is limited. The strengthening of the US dollar at the macro level suppresses risk appetite, while the US-EU tariff agreement eases trade frictions and limits the downside space. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the US tariff policy on August 1 and inventory changes [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contracts and Basis: As of the week ending July 25, the price of the SHFE copper main contract dropped from 79,820 yuan/ton to 79,290 yuan/ton, a decline of about 0.66%. The LME copper price fell from $9,854.5/ton to $9,796/ton, continuing the high-level correction trend. The spot premium significantly narrowed. The premium of premium copper decreased from 180 yuan/ton to 165 yuan/ton, and the premium of flat copper decreased from 110 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton, indicating increased spot supply pressure. The LME copper 0 - 3 backwardation widened to -$53.68/ton [1]. - Positions and Trading Volume: The LME copper position increased to 270,400 lots, but the SHFE copper inventory increased to 128,500 tons, intensifying the long-short game. Near the end of the month in the Shanghai market, the sentiment of holders to sell for cash increased, while downstream purchases only maintained rigid demand, and market liquidity marginally weakened [2]. 3.1.2 Industry Chain Supply and Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply Side: Short-term disturbance factors intensified. Newmont's Red Chris mine suspended operations due to an accident, and Glencore's Mount Isa mine will officially close next week, weakening the global copper mine supply elasticity. However, the commissioning of Jiangxi Copper's Zambia project supplemented the supply of the processing end. Overall, the smelting end maintained a high level, and the arrival of imported copper and domestic supply led to inventory accumulation in the Shanghai area [3]. - Demand Side: The off-season characteristics were obvious. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises decreased by 2.07% to 70.83% week-on-week and is expected to further drop to 70.30% next week, mainly because the rising copper price suppressed purchases, and the orders for photovoltaic and power projects seasonally declined. Although there was resilience in the photovoltaic field demand, the terminal delivery rhythm slowed down. The spot discount in North China remained at 140 yuan/ton, indicating weak regional consumption [4]. - Inventory Side: The contradiction in global visible inventories emerged. The LME inventory slightly decreased to 16,133 tons, but the SHFE inventory increased to 128,500 tons, and the COMEX inventory rose to 248,600 short tons. The pressure on domestic social inventories was particularly prominent [5]. 3.1.3 Market Summary - Copper prices may maintain a volatile and weak pattern. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the US tariff policy on August 1 and inventory changes [6]. 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - From July 22 to July 28, 2025, most copper-related prices showed a downward trend, and inventory changes varied. For example, the SMM 1 copper price decreased from 79,920 yuan/ton to 79,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.46%. The LME copper price decreased from $9,855/ton to $9,763/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. The LME inventory increased by 10.53%, the SHFE inventory decreased by 0.84%, and the COMEX inventory increased by 0.88% [8]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On July 25, 2025, Jiangxi Copper's first overseas wholly-owned factory in Zambia was fully put into production, with an initial investment of $11 million, capable of producing 40,000 kilometers of wire and cable and 10,000 tons of oxygen-free copper rods per year [9]. - On July 25, 2025, the operating rate of copper cable enterprises was 70.83%, a week-on-week decrease of 2.07 percentage points, and is expected to further drop to 70.30% next week [9]. - On July 24, 2025, Newmont's Red Chris mine in Canada suspended operations due to a collapse accident, with an expected copper production of 20,000 metal tons in 2025 [9]. - On July 24, 2025, Glencore will close its Mount Isa copper mine in Australia next week, with an estimated layoff of about 500 people [10]. - On July 23, 2025, according to data from the National Energy Administration, the new photovoltaic installed capacity in June was 14.36 GW, and the cumulative installed capacity from January to June 2025 was 212.21 GW. The increase in photovoltaic installed capacity will drive up copper demand [10]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions analysis, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventories [11][13][17].