光大期货能化商品日报-20250729

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities in the report are rated as "Volatile" [1][2][3][4] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices moved up due to geopolitical tensions, but the rebound is limited without substantial supply disruptions [1] - Fuel oil market structure slightly recovered, with expected increased arrivals from Europe in July [2] - Asphalt market is supported by low supply and inventory, and short - term long positions can be considered after oil price stabilizes [2] - Polyester prices are expected to return to the previous oscillation range due to cost support and low inventory [3] - Rubber prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term due to macro events and supply factors [3] - Methanol is expected to enter an oscillation phase after valuation repair [4] - Polyolefins will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and demand, with limited downside space if the cost does not drop significantly [4] - PVC supply remains high, demand is gradually picking up, and the inventory is slowly decreasing [4] 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Monday, WTI 9 - month contract rose $1.55 to $66.71 per barrel, Brent 9 - month contract rose $1.60 to $70.04 per barrel, and SC2509 rose 10.4 yuan to 515.9 yuan per barrel. Geopolitical tensions caused by Trump's actions on the Russia - Ukraine issue led to a rise in oil prices, but the rebound is limited without actual supply impact [1] - Fuel Oil: On Monday, FU2509 fell 0.9% to 2869 yuan/ton, and LU2510 fell 1.03% to 3545 yuan/ton. The market structure slightly recovered, with expected increased arrivals from Europe in July [2] - Asphalt: On Monday, BU2509 fell 1.05% to 3569 yuan/ton. Entering August, supply may increase slightly, but demand is affected by rainfall. The market is supported by low supply and inventory [2] - Polyester: TA509 fell 2.51% to 4812 yuan/ton, EG2509 fell 2.4% to 4436 yuan/ton. The "anti - involution" market subsided, but cost support and low inventory are expected to keep prices oscillating [3] - Rubber: On Monday, RU2509 fell 520 yuan/ton to 15065 yuan/ton, NR fell 510 yuan/ton to 12810 yuan/ton. The "anti - involution" market subsided, and short - term macro events will cause price fluctuations [3] - Methanol: Comprehensive factors such as increased Iranian device load and arrivals, stable downstream profits and inventory increase lead to weak fundamentals, and it is expected to oscillate after valuation repair [4] - Polyolefins: Polyolefins will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and demand, and the downside space is limited if the cost does not drop significantly [4] - Polyvinyl Chloride: Supply remains high, demand is gradually picking up, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. The basis and monthly spread are widening [4] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on July 29, 2025, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and the change and historical quantile of basis rate [6] 3.3 Market News - Trump advanced the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire deadline, causing concerns about potential supply disruptions in the crude oil market [9] - The EU imposed a new round of sanctions on Russia, and traders are preparing for a tighter European diesel market and possible redirection of Russian oil exports [9] 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The report shows the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, etc. [11][13][15] - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [29][31][35] - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread: The report shows the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [45][47][50] - 4.4 Inter - variety Spread: The report shows the spread charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [62][64][68] - 4.5 Production Profit: The report shows the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, including ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [71][73][74] 3.5 Research Team Members Introduction - The research team includes members such as Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and professional titles in relevant fields [76][77][78]