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市场博弈铜关税
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-07-29 10:06

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the market is in a period of gaming over US copper tariffs, with a high bearish sentiment. Along with the correction after the cooling of the domestic commodity sentiment, the market trend is bearish. Short - term support is around 78,000 yuan/ton, and it is pressured by the 5 - day moving average above. - In the medium - to - long - term, after the raw material inventory of smelters is depleted, there may be an increase in maintenance of production capacity. The market is bullish in the medium - to - long - term, and there may be an oversold rebound after the sentiment is digested. The supply is loose in the short - term due to the tariff implementation and tight in the medium - to - long - term. The copper consumption structure may change due to trade uncertainties and the 50% US copper tariff, affecting the apparent copper consumption [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The market rumors of possible exemption of Chilean copper tariffs led to a sharp decline in US copper prices, while the impact on Shanghai and London copper was small. Sino - US economic and trade talks started in Stockholm, Sweden. - In the short - term, the supply is affected by the tariff implementation and is loose, but it is tight in the medium - to - long - term. After the copper tariff is implemented, more copper concentrates may be transferred to China. - Recently, with the decline in copper concentrate imports and high operating loads of domestic smelters, the inventory of refined copper concentrates has been continuously depleted. - The TC/RC fees are still negative but have stopped falling and stabilized. Smelters can currently rely on by - products such as sulfuric acid to make up for losses, and most smelters have raw material reserves, so the production enthusiasm is okay. The concentrated maintenance season is expected to be in the third quarter or after a significant depletion of raw material inventory [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened high, rose, and then fluctuated downward, closing at 78,840 yuan/ton. The long positions of the top 20 decreased by 3,096 to 115,164 lots, and the short positions decreased by 930 to 115,790 lots. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 85 yuan/ton, and in South China it was 0 yuan/ton. On July 28, 2025, the LME official price was $9,830/ton, and the spot premium was - $47/ton [4]. Supply Side As of July 25, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $42.73/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.26 cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 18,100 tons, an increase of 251 tons from the previous period. As of July 24, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 71,600 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 127,600 tons, a slight increase of 225 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 250,800 short tons, an increase of 2,184 short tons from the previous period [8].