Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Ethylene glycol may maintain a fluctuating and relatively strong pattern in the short term, but its upward space is limited in the medium term. Cost - side support has marginally improved, and port inventory has been continuously decreasing, providing upward momentum for prices. However, downstream polyester and loom loads remain stable, lacking demand growth, and the increase in arrival volume may gradually turn into inventory pressure. If the price fluctuations of crude oil and coal intensify, the cost center of ethylene glycol may shift down again, and there is a risk of the price falling after a spike [3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary Futures Market Data Changes - The price of the ethylene glycol futures main contract has risen for three consecutive days, from 4,453 yuan/ton to 4,543 yuan/ton, an increase of about 2%. The spot price in East China remained stable at 4,595 yuan/ton, causing the basis to narrow from 64 yuan/ton to 37 yuan/ton, and the discount range decreased, reflecting a stronger sentiment in the futures market. The 1 - 5 spread rebounded from - 39 yuan/ton to - 23 yuan/ton, and the pressure on the far - month contract was slightly relieved [1] - The trading volume of the main contract increased to 316,600 lots, reaching a recent high, indicating increased market activity and a stronger willingness of long - position funds to enter the market [1] Supply - demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - Supply: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 62.96%, and the operating rates of coal - based and oil - based plants were maintained at 61.51% and 63.94% respectively, with no obvious increase in supply. The loss of naphtha - based production profit narrowed slightly to - 79.67 US dollars/ton, and the coal - based production profit remained at - 110 yuan/ton. Cost - side pressure still existed but did not worsen further [2] - Demand: The load of polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained at 63.43%. Terminal demand showed no obvious change, and downstream replenishment was mainly for rigid demand [2] - Inventory: The inventory at the main ports in East China decreased by 19,000 tons week - on - week to 475,000 tons, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased by 9,000 tons to 148,000 tons, with short - term destocking accelerating. However, the arrival volume increased by 27,000 tons month - on - month to 159,000 tons, and the subsequent inventory accumulation pressure may gradually appear [2] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - Futures: The main contract price of MEG futures decreased by 79 yuan/ton to 4,464 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.74%. The trading volume decreased by 75,533 lots to 241,057 lots, a decrease of 23.86%. The open interest decreased by 21,692 lots to 258,742 lots, a decrease of 7.74% [5] - Spot: The spot price in the East China market decreased by 95 yuan/ton to 4,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.07% [5] - Spreads: The MEG basis increased by 79 yuan/ton to 116 yuan/ton, an increase of 213.51%. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 13 yuan/ton to - 36 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56.52%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 43 yuan/ton to 64 yuan/ton, an increase of 204.76%. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton to - 28 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,500.00% [5] - Profits: The naphtha - based production profit decreased by 9 US dollars/ton to - 92 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10.82%. The ethylene - based production profit remained unchanged at - 586 yuan/ton. The methanol - based production profit increased by 177 yuan/ton to - 1,096 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.88%. The coal - based production profit remained unchanged at - 110 yuan/ton [5] - Operating Rates: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based operating rate, oil - based operating rate, polyester factory load, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load, ethylene - based operating rate, and methanol - based operating rate all remained unchanged [5] - Inventory and Arrival Volume: The inventory at the main ports in East China decreased by 19,000 tons to 475,000 tons, a decrease of 3.85%. The inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased by 9,000 tons to 148,000 tons, a decrease of 5.73%. The arrival volume increased by 27,000 tons to 159,000 tons, an increase of 20.45% [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On July 28, in the morning, the negotiation in the East China US - dollar market moved down, with near - month shipments negotiated in the range of 526 - 530 US dollars/ton, and no transactions were heard. In the afternoon, the center of the East China US - dollar market fluctuated narrowly, with near - month shipments negotiated in the range of 527 - 530 US dollars/ton, and no transactions were heard [6] - On July 28, the spot price of the ethylene glycol market in Shaanxi was raised, with the market average price around 4,000 yuan/ton for self - pick - up. There was still pressure on spot transactions, but the price of Shaanxi supplies was raised due to the continuous increase in coal prices [6] - On July 28, the mainstream market performed poorly, and the price in the South China market followed the decline. Near the end of the month, the enthusiasm of downstream factories to purchase goods was limited, and no transactions were heard in the market, with the current price around 4,550 yuan/ton for delivery [6] - On July 28, the oil price fell over the weekend, and the market recovered in the morning, but the impact of the cost side was limited. The ethylene glycol market opened lower. Affected by the macro - environment, commodities collectively corrected, and the current negotiation price in East China was around 4,510 yuan/ton [6] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as the closing price and basis of the ethylene glycol main contract, ethylene glycol production profit, domestic ethylene glycol plant operating rate, downstream polyester plant operating rate, ethylene glycol inventory statistics at the main ports in East China (weekly), and total ethylene glycol industry inventory [7][9][11]
乙二醇短期去库支撑延续，中期关注累库风险
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-07-29 10:06