交投情绪冷清，期现均回调

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea futures opened low and moved high, closing down at the end of the session. The weak futures market affected the spot sentiment, with upstream factories having poor sales and prices showing a downward trend. The supply is sufficient, and although some enterprises plan to conduct maintenance in August, the daily output remains high. The demand in the main delivery areas has weakened, and the domestic demand has declined. Despite the support of export containerization, the inventory reduction rate has slowed down, indicating weak terminal demand. The current market is bearish, but there is still a possibility of a rebound. Overall, the market remains in a weak and volatile state [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea futures market was weak, affecting the spot market. Supply is ample, and although there will be maintenance in August, the daily output stays high. The demand in the main delivery areas has weakened, and domestic demand is sluggish. The market is currently bearish but may rebound, remaining weak and volatile [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1730 yuan/ton, moved high, and closed down at 1744 yuan/ton, with a decline of -0.06%. The trading volume was 152,980 lots (-144 lots). Among the top 20 major positions, long positions increased by 1,701 lots, and short positions increased by 3,744 lots [2] - Spot: The weak futures market affected the spot sentiment, with upstream factories having poor sales and prices showing a downward trend. The mainstream ex - factory prices of small - granular urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1700 - 1750 yuan/ton, and the transaction center continued to move down [4] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: Based on Shandong, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the September contract basis at 26 yuan/ton (-26 yuan/ton) [8] - Supply Data: On July 29, 2025, the national daily urea output was 193,700 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 82.47% [11]