玉米淀粉日报-20250729

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The planting of US corn is completed, and it is currently in a weak state. With the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, US corn prices have continued to decline. However, as weather factors are likely to be speculated on later, the downward space for US corn is limited. China has restored a 15% tariff on US corn, with a total of 26% tariff within the quota, and a 22% tariff on US sorghum. The import profit of foreign corn is relatively high, and the import price from Brazil in August is 2,001 yuan. [3] - The flat - hatch price of ports in the north is stable, around 2,320 yuan. The spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is stable. The supply in North China has decreased, and the corn spot price has risen. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn is stable. The wheat price in North China is stable, around 2,450 yuan/ton. The price difference between wheat and corn is small, and wheat substitution continues. The domestic breeding demand is still weak, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is high. The corn spot price is relatively stable in the short term. Recently, imported corn has been auctioned successively, making the corn spot price weak. The inventory of corn traders in North China is still low, and some feed enterprises will stock up in August. It is expected that the supply of corn in North China will still be tight. It is estimated that the short - term support for North China corn is strong around 2,400 yuan/ton, and around 2,220 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang. [3][5] - The number of vehicles arriving at deep - processing plants in Shandong has increased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is strong. The starch price in Shandong is basically around 2,860 yuan, and the starch spot price in the Northeast is also stable. This week, the inventory of corn starch has increased. The manufacturer's inventory this week is 1.311 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons from last week, with a monthly increase of 0.15% and a year - on - year increase of 19.4%. At present, the starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stockpiling. The average income from by - products in the past few years has basically been over 600 yuan. Today, the contribution of by - products in Shandong is 627 yuan (662 yuan in Heilongjiang). Recently, the by - product price has been strong, higher than last year. The spot price difference between corn and starch is low. North China corn is stable in the short term, while Northeast corn is relatively weak. In the long - term, due to weak starch demand, enterprises will be in a long - term loss state. It is expected that the short - term 09 starch contract on the futures market will fluctuate narrowly. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - Futures Market Data: On July 29, 2025, for different corn and corn starch futures contracts, there were fluctuations in closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests. For example, the closing price of C2601 was 2,215, down 11 points or 0.50%, with a trading volume of 81,555 (down 2.80%) and an open interest of 213,252 (up 10.23%). [2] - Spot Market Data: The current prices and price changes of corn and corn starch in different regions are provided. For example, the current price of corn in Qinggang is 2,270 yuan, with no change; the current price of starch in Longfeng is 2,850 yuan, with no change. [2] - Basis and Spread Data: The basis of corn and corn starch, as well as the price spreads between different contracts, are presented. For example, the basis of C2601 is - 32, and the spread of C01 - C05 is - 48, down 3 points. [2][4] 3.2 Market Judgment - Corn: The planting of US corn is completed, and it is in a weak state. After the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, US corn prices continue to decline. However, the downward space is limited due to potential weather speculation. The import profit of foreign corn is high. The domestic corn market has different situations in different regions. North China corn may be in short supply in the short term, while the overall domestic corn spot price is relatively stable in the short term but weak due to imported corn auctions. [3][5] - Starch: The starch price is affected by corn price and downstream stockpiling. The inventory has increased this week. The by - product price is strong. In the long - term, due to weak demand, enterprises may face long - term losses. The short - term 09 starch contract on the futures market is expected to fluctuate narrowly. [6] 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral Strategy: The domestic 09 corn contract will continue to fluctuate narrowly, and it is recommended to wait and see. [8] - Arbitrage Strategy: Buy the spot and short the 09 corn contract in a rolling manner, and wait and see the price spread between 09 corn and starch. [8] 3.4 Corn Options - Option Strategy: Enterprises with spot can close out short positions of corn call options, or short - term traders can try to sell on rallies. [11] 3.5 Related Attachments - The attachments include multiple charts showing the spot prices of corn in different regions, the basis of corn 09 contracts, the price spreads between different corn and corn starch contracts, etc., providing visual data support for market analysis. [12][14][18]