热点与量能支撑行情延续，事件推动交易逻辑基于盈利预期的改善

Group 1 - The report indicates that the trading logic is driven by improved profit expectations rather than reality, with average weekly trading volume in the stock market rising from approximately 1.5 trillion to over 1.8 trillion since the end of June, although a marginal weakening was observed last week [1][12] - The "anti-involution" and "Yajiang" phenomena have boosted trading sentiment, enhancing risk appetite from both supply and demand sides, with the market preemptively trading on future profit improvements [1][12] - Economic pressures are expected to increase in the second half of the year, with the A-share market potentially exhibiting a seesaw effect in August and September, making monetary policy a key timing consideration for the third quarter [1][12] Group 2 - The first phase of "anti-involution" is ongoing, with a return to the essence of distribution and demand expected after the initial heat subsides. The first phase focuses on cyclical trading, influenced by supply-side reforms since 2016, which have altered market perceptions of excessive competition in related industries [2][13] - The essence of "anti-involution" is to break the vicious cycle of "low price → reduced quality → internal competition" based on improved production efficiency from supply-side reforms, aiming for sustainable development through fair distribution [2][13] - Industry allocation is categorized over time, starting with cyclical expansion (currently favoring specialized chemicals), followed by emerging industries (solar energy, automotive, lithium batteries), then social welfare (education, healthcare, childbirth), and finally consumption [2][13] Group 3 - The report highlights ongoing challenges such as deflation, weak profits, and poor demand, with the timing of monetary policy easing being crucial for sustaining the stock market in the second half of the year [3][14] - The GDP deflator index has been in negative territory for nine consecutive quarters, indicating deflationary pressure, although the second quarter GDP growth exceeded 5% due to a low base [3][14] - The overall pre-announcement rate for A-share companies is only 44%, with net profit growth declining compared to Q1, reflecting that the profit side is still stabilizing at a low point [3][14] Group 4 - Key upcoming dates include August 12 for tariffs, August 22 for the last special treasury bond issuance of the year, and the political bureau meeting in September or October, which will influence policy timing based on economic data strength [4][20] - The report suggests that after taking profits in the steel sector, attention should shift to the first phase of "anti-involution" expansion, particularly in specialized chemicals [4][20] - The anticipated resolution of trade negotiations in the third quarter is expected to gradually materialize, with tariffs having a moderate impact on inflation, and profit expectations and risk appetite likely to continue driving risk assets upward [4][22] Group 5 - The report emphasizes that the resolution of trade negotiations will temporarily boost market risk appetite, but this focus will gradually fade in future trading [6][23] - The impact of tariffs on inflation at the consumer level is expected to be relatively limited, as businesses may absorb most of the tariff costs, with wholesale and retail profit margins declining [7][29] - Despite a significant nominal retail sales increase in June, actual retail sales growth remains weak, indicating that rising prices are suppressing consumption volume growth [7][30] Group 6 - The strategy recommends continuing to go long on US stocks and maintaining a strategic bullish outlook on the US dollar, while holding a bearish steep view on US bonds [8][36] - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to act, as inflation and employment data do not present immediate risks, allowing for a wait-and-see approach [8][36] - The anticipated limited impact of tariffs on inflation and the significant political pressure on the Federal Reserve suggest that there may only be one rate cut throughout the year [8][36]