山金期货贵金属策略报告-20250729

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trading agreements are reached in batches, the risk - aversion demand continues to decline, and the risk of stagflation in the US economy increases. Strong employment and inflation suppress the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have increased their positions again. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Market Performance: Today, precious metals were volatile and slightly weaker. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed down 0.24%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed down 0.33% [1]. - Core Logic: Short - term trade agreements reduce risk - aversion demand, and the US economic stagflation risk and strong employment and inflation suppress interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - Attributes Analysis - Risk - aversion: Sino - US trade talks and US - EU agreement reduce trade risks [1]. - Monetary: The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this month. The market expects the next Fed rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under upward pressure [1]. - Commodity: The CRB commodity index rebounds under pressure, and the weak RMB benefits domestic prices [1]. - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2]. - Data: Various gold - related data such as international and domestic prices, basis, spreads, ratios, positions, inventories, etc. are provided. For example, Comex gold main contract closed at $3314.00 per ounce, down 0.73% from the previous day [2]. - Net Position Ranking: The top 10 net - long and net - short positions of Shanghai gold among futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are presented [3]. Silver - Price Anchor: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver [4]. - Fund and Inventory: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have increased their positions again, and the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly [4]. - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [5]. - Data: Various silver - related data such as international and domestic prices, basis, spreads, positions, inventories, etc. are provided. For example, Comex silver main contract closed at $38.33 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.01% from the previous day [5]. - Net Position Ranking: The top 10 net - long and net - short positions of Shanghai silver among futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are presented [6]. Fundamental Key Data - US Monetary Policy: Federal fund target rate upper limit, discount rate, reserve balance interest rate, etc. have changed. The Fed's total assets are $67089.39 billion, down $16.72 billion from the previous period [7]. - Inflation Data: US inflation data such as CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, etc. show certain changes. For example, the year - on - year CPI is 2.70%, up 0.30 percentage points from the previous period [9]. - Economic Growth: US economic growth data such as GDP, unemployment rate, non - farm employment, etc. are presented. GDP's annualized year - on - year growth is 1.90%, down 1.00 percentage points from the previous period [9]. - Other Data: Data on various aspects such as international trade, central bank gold reserves, and risk - aversion and commodity - related indexes are provided [9][10]. - Interest Rate Expectation: The latest Fed interest rate expectations based on the CME FedWatch tool are given, showing the probability distribution of different interest - rate ranges at different meeting dates from 2025 to 2026 [11].