南华原木产业风险管理日报：平淡是真-20250729

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity sentiment has cooled down, and the leading stocks have lost momentum. The market is dull, with a continuous oscillatory adjustment after a peak. The trading volume has been declining since last week's peak. There is no obvious driving force after the valuation repair, and there is no significant contradiction in the fundamentals. There are relatively more ship - buying activities recently, leading to short - term arrival pressure. The spot price has changed little, and the pressure from the delivery goods will be gradually digested by the market. The current futures price is slightly overvalued based on the warehouse receipt cost in Taicang, while the hedging profit is better when anchored to the warehouse receipt cost in Chongqing. Industry customers who are not optimistic about the future market can consider hedging after August to lock in the futures profit and quickly recover funds through delivery. According to the latest data from Steel Union, the CFR quotation remains unchanged at $114. There is no obvious contradiction in inventory and delivery volume. Due to cost support, the strategy can consider selling the lg2509 - p - 800 contract at an appropriate time [3] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 820 - 860, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a historical percentile of 67.4% over the past 3 years [2] 3.2 Log Hedging Strategy - Inventory Management: When the log import volume is high and the inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price drops, for long - position spot exposure, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2509) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 850 - 875 [2] - Procurement Management: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is to be made according to order situations, for short - position spot exposure, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2509) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 810 - 820 [2] 3.3 Core Contradictions - The commodity market is dull after a peak, with the trading volume declining. There is no obvious driving force after the valuation repair, and there is no significant fundamental contradiction. There is short - term arrival pressure, and the delivery pressure will be digested. The current futures price is slightly overvalued based on Taicang's warehouse receipt cost, while the hedging profit is better when anchored to Chongqing's cost. Industry customers can consider hedging after August. The CFR quotation remains unchanged, and there is no obvious contradiction in inventory and delivery volume. A strategy of selling the lg2509 - p - 800 contract at an appropriate time can be considered [3] 3.4 Spot and Basis - On July 29, 2025, the spot prices of different specifications of logs in various ports (such as 3.9 large (3.8A) in Rizhao Port, 4 large (3.8A) in Taicang Port, etc.) and their corresponding basis values are presented. Some spot prices have no change, while some have small fluctuations. The basis values vary according to different specifications and ports [5][8] 3.5利多解读 (Likely Positive Factors) - Traders are willing to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses; the import cost continues to rise; the overall commodity sentiment has improved; and there is an impact from funds [7] 3.6利空解读 (Likely Negative Factors) - The peak season fails to show strong performance; the foreign shipment volume continues to increase [7] 3.7 Log Data Overview - Supply: The radiation pine import volume in June 2025 was 1.61 million m³, a decrease of 80,000 m³ from the previous period but a 35.3% increase year - on - year [9] - Inventory: As of July 25, 2025, the national port inventory was 3.17 million m³, a decrease of 120,000 m³ from the previous week and a 3.4% decrease year - on - year. The port inventory in Shandong was 1,930,000 m³, a decrease of 2,000 m³ from the previous week but a 5.8% increase year - on - year. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1,016,400 m³, a decrease of 91,169 m³ from the previous week and a 21.4% increase year - on - year [9] - Demand: As of July 25, 2025, the average daily log delivery volume at ports was 64,100 m³, an increase of 1,700 m³ from the previous week and a 27.2% increase year - on - year. The average daily delivery volume in Shandong was 33,900 m³, an increase of 300 m³ from the previous week and a 34.5% increase year - on - year. The average daily delivery volume in Jiangsu was 24,600 m³, an increase of 1,400 m³ from the previous week and a 31.6% increase year - on - year [9] - Profit: As of August 1, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 82 yuan/m³, a decrease of 1 yuan/m³ from the previous week. The spruce import profit was - 95 yuan/m³, an increase of 2 yuan/m³ from the previous week [9] - Main Spot Prices: On July 29, 2025, the spot prices of some log specifications (such as 3.9 medium (3.8A) in Rizhao Port, 4 medium (3.8A) in Taicang Port) showed no change compared to the previous period, with varying year - on - year decreases [9] - External Market Quotation: As of August 1, 2025, the CFR quotation was $114, unchanged from the previous period and a 3.4% decrease year - on - year [9]