2025年7月策略月报：上半年国民经济稳中向好-20250729

Market Overview - The A-share market showed optimism in July, with major indices rising. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,593.66 points, up 4.33% from the end of June. The ChiNext Index and CSI 500 Index had significant gains [7][10]. - In July, 30 out of 31 Shenwan first-level industries experienced an increase, with the steel industry leading at a growth of 17.94% [10][14]. - The overall market liquidity remained stable, with a decrease in the scale of restricted shares released in July, amounting to approximately 1,922.63 billion yuan, down from the previous month [23][29]. Investment Sentiment and Trends - Investor confidence has rebounded, with increased trading activity. In early July, funds flowed into high-dividend blue-chip sectors, while consumer and technology sectors showed volatility. By mid-July, market sentiment improved, pushing the A-share index above 3,500 points [30][31]. - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), pharmaceutical, and non-ferrous metals sectors saw significant net inflows of capital [30][31]. Policy Analysis - The report highlights the government's commitment to expanding domestic demand and enhancing economic growth through various policies. The focus is on promoting high-quality development and addressing consumer needs [44][45]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" indicators are reportedly on track, with expectations for the economic total to reach around 140 trillion yuan this year [44][45]. Valuation Levels - As of July 25, the dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the Shanghai Composite Index is at a historical percentile of 78.72%, indicating a high valuation level compared to historical data [39][40]. - Most Shenwan first-level industries have seen an increase in valuation, with 14 industries, including retail and telecommunications, exceeding the historical 50th percentile for PE ratios [40][42].