BOHAI SECURITIES·2025-07-29 10:46Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" and the non-ferrous metals industry is also rated as "Positive" [4] Core Views - The report highlights a rebound in steel prices, driven by downstream replenishment intentions and macroeconomic "anti-involution" messages, while cautioning against price volatility due to speculative demand [4][16] - The report emphasizes the potential for demand growth in special steel sectors due to high-altitude corrosion environments [3][16] - The report notes that aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to insufficient fundamental support, despite positive macro sentiment [3][48] - Lithium prices are supported by "anti-involution" news, but there are concerns about oversupply and speculative demand [3][54] - The report indicates a significant increase in China's rare earth exports in June, with expectations for further growth in July [3][67] Summary by Sections Steel Industry - Steel prices have rebounded, with downstream purchasing intentions increasing; however, speculative demand may lead to price fluctuations [4][16] - As of July 25, the total steel inventory was 13.30 million tons, down 0.11% from the previous week and down 22.78% year-on-year [26] - The average price index for steel on July 25 was 3,606.18 CNY/ton, up 4.16% from the previous week [39] Copper - The copper market is experiencing tight supply and low inventory, which supports prices; however, the market is currently in a seasonal lull [41] - As of July 25, LME copper spot prices were 9,800 USD/ton, up 1.25% from the previous week [46] Aluminum - The aluminum market is under pressure from seasonal demand, with expectations of inventory accumulation; however, macroeconomic sentiment remains positive [48] - As of July 25, LME aluminum spot prices were 2,700 USD/ton, up 2.53% from the previous week [49] Precious Metals - Gold prices are under pressure due to reduced risk aversion following trade agreements between the US and other countries [51] - As of July 25, COMEX gold closed at 3,338.50 USD/oz, down 0.51% from the previous week [51] New Energy Metals - The lithium sector is expected to see accelerated capacity clearance, with prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate rising to 74,000 CNY/ton, up 12.12% from the previous week [55] - The report highlights the potential for new demand in the lithium sector due to government policies supporting solar energy [54] Rare Earths and Minor Metals - The report notes a significant increase in the price of light rare earths, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide priced at 513,500 CNY/ton, up 7.31% from the previous week [67] - Tungsten concentrate prices rose to 188,000 CNY/ton, up 4.44% from the previous week [69]