市场主流观点汇总-20250729

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logic. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and summarizes the long - short views and trading logic of various futures varieties [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - Commodities: From July 21 to July 25, 2025, among commodities, the prices of some commodities such as coking coal, glass, and polysilicon increased significantly, with coking coal rising 35.96%, glass 25.99%, and polysilicon 16.36%. While the prices of some commodities such as corn, palm oil, and crude oil decreased, with corn down 0.13%, palm oil 0.31%, and crude oil 0.56% [2]. - Stocks: A - shares (CSI 500, SSE 50, etc.), overseas stocks (Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index, etc.) generally showed an upward trend. For example, the CSI 500 rose 3.28%, the Nikkei 225 4.11%, and the Hang Seng Index 2.27% [2]. - Bonds: The prices of Chinese treasury bonds (2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year) all increased, with the 5 - year treasury bond rising 5.91%, the 10 - year 4.35%, and the 2 - year 3.28% [2]. - Foreign Exchange: The euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.99%, while the US dollar index fell 0.80% and the US dollar intermediate price fell 0.11% [2]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - financial Sector - Stock Index Futures: Among 9 institutions' views, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include large - scale infrastructure projects driving policy - based demand expectations, the fermentation of the anti - involution market, the rise of pro - cyclical sectors, and the increase in A - share trading volume. The bearish factors include the pressure of short - term profit - taking, potential regulatory measures, the reduction of ETF shares, and increased market risk aversion [4]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include the central bank's loose liquidity policy, the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the potential improvement of the bond market sentiment. The bearish factors include the stock - bond seesaw effect, the improvement of corporate expectations, and the expected fiscal expansion [4]. 3.2.2 Energy Sector - Crude Oil: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include strong fundamental demand in the peak season, potential interest rate cuts, tight Russian shipments, and a decline in US crude oil production. The bearish factors include the peak refinery utilization rate, a stronger US dollar, seasonal demand weakness, and the potential return of Iranian supply [5]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - Palm Oil: Among 8 institutions' views, 3 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include the unexpected US biodiesel policy, increased domestic consumption in Malaysia, limited production potential in Southeast Asia, low inventories in India, and the support of Indonesia's B50 blending policy. The bearish factors include good production performance, lower - than - expected exports, and expected inventory accumulation in China [5]. 3.2.4 Non - ferrous Metals Sector - Copper: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include the boost of the "anti - involution" policy, the recovery of global manufacturing PMI, long - term demand expectations from infrastructure projects, and low domestic copper inventories. The bearish factors include potential price fluctuations due to macro events, weak US manufacturing data, seasonal demand weakness, and the potential decline in copper prices following the weakening of the commodity market sentiment [6]. 3.2.5 Chemical Sector - Glass: Among 8 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include the stimulation of macro - policies, strong arbitrage demand, inventory reduction, and the approaching peak season. The bearish factors include speculative inventory accumulation, potential profit - taking, weak real - estate data, and potential supply increases [6]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - Gold: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include the expectation of a Fed rate cut, increased risk - aversion demand, potential trade - related risks, policy uncertainty, and increased net long positions. The bearish factors include progress in trade negotiations, strong US economic data, the Fed's possible wait - and - see attitude, and a stronger US dollar [7]. 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - Coking Coal: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. The bullish factors include high molten iron production, macro - economic support, price increases in coke, and the recovery of coking plant production. The bearish factors include regulatory measures, the resumption of coal mine production, sufficient imported coal supply, and increased coking plant inventories [7].