碳酸锂日报-20250729

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Yesterday, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 7.98% to 73,120 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose 1,000 yuan/ton to 73,900 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose 1,000 yuan/ton to 71,700 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 2,300 yuan/ton to 65,420 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased 280 tons to 12,276 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the production in July is expected to increase 3.9% month - on - month to 81,150 tons, and the weekly production decreased 485 tons to 18,630 tons. In June 2025, China's lithium carbonate import volume was 17,700 tons, a 16.3% month - on - month decrease. On the demand side, the production schedule in July increased slightly month - on - month, and the consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased 3% month - on - month to about 80,800 tons. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory increased 550 tons to 143,170 tons, with downstream inventory increasing 1,544 tons to 42,815 tons, intermediate link inventory increasing 1,660 tons to 44,970 tons, and upstream inventory decreasing 2,654 tons to 55,385 tons [3]. - The core short - term fundamental contradiction lies in concerns about supply disruptions, but there is still no clear announcement. Affected by the market, market volatility is high, and opportunities to short volatility in the future market can be monitored [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 73,120 yuan/ton, down 7,400 yuan from July 25; the closing price of the continuous contract was 71,700 yuan/ton, down 7,700 yuan [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 805 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) remained unchanged at 1,165 yuan/ton, while the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) rose 15 yuan to 1,805 yuan/ton. The prices of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) and (Li2O: 7% - 8%) decreased by 590 yuan and 600 yuan respectively [5]. - Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton, and the prices of various types of lithium hydroxide also increased, with an increase of 2,300 - 2,350 yuan/ton [5]. - Other products: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose 250 yuan/ton. There were also changes in various price spreads and the prices of ternary precursors, cathode materials, and batteries [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. 3.2.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [9][11][13]. 3.2.3 Price Spreads - Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China - Japan - South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and other spreads from 2024 to 2025, as well as the basis [16][17][19]. 3.2.4 Precursors and Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [21][24][27]. 3.2.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt acid lithium battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][32][33]. 3.2.6 Inventory - Charts show the weekly inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from December 2024 to July 2025 [35][36][38]. 3.2.7 Production Costs - The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [39][40]. 4. Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, and has multiple professional titles. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many spot leading enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles. His team has won many awards [43]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [44]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [44].