利空情绪占优，能化延续弱势

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern due to profit - taking by long positions and a collective correction in the domestic commodity futures market [4]. - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract is likely to continue its weak and volatile trend, influenced by the decline of domestic coal futures and a weak supply - demand fundamental [4]. - Domestic and international crude oil futures prices are expected to stabilize with fluctuations as the negative impact of production increase fades, the original production increase plan is realized, and it is the peak oil - consuming season in the Northern Hemisphere [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of July 27, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 640,400 tons, a 0.91% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 2.70% to 75,800 tons, while the general trade inventory increased by 1.42% to 564,600 tons. The inbound and outbound rates of warehouses also changed [8]. - As of July 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, a 1.93 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 10.06 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23%, a 0.25 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and a 3.98 - percentage - point increase year - on - year [8]. - In June 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.6%, a 5.7 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year and a 3.9 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. From January to June 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.5% and 11.4%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year increases of 41.4% and 40.3%, accounting for 44.3% of total new vehicle sales [9]. Methanol - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 81.66%, a 1.06% increase from the previous week, a 6.35% decrease from the previous month, and a 15.35% increase compared to the same period last year. The weekly average methanol production was 1.8989 million tons [10]. - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the operating rates of downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE changed to varying degrees. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.42%, and the methanol to olefin futures profit decreased significantly [10]. - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the methanol inventory in East and South China ports was 587,100 tons, a 0.89 - million - ton decrease from the previous week, a 53,000 - ton increase from the previous month, and a 254,100 - ton decrease compared to the same period last year [11][12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of July 18, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 422, a decrease of 2 from the previous week and 55 from the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.273 million barrels, a decrease of 102,000 barrels per day from the previous week and 27,000 barrels per day year - on - year [13]. - As of the week of July 18, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) was 419 million barrels, a significant decrease of 3.169 million barrels from the previous week and 17.492 million barrels from the same period last year. The refinery operating rate was 95.5% [13]. - As of July 22, 2025, the non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil decreased significantly compared to the previous week, while the net long positions in Brent crude oil also decreased significantly [14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,900 yuan/ton | - 200 yuan/ton | 15,010 yuan/ton | - 55 yuan/ton | - 110 yuan/ton | - 145 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,442 yuan/ton | + 0 yuan/ton | 2,434 yuan/ton | + 30 yuan/ton | + 8 yuan/ton | - 30 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 479.6 yuan/barrel | + 0.3 yuan/barrel | 515.0 yuan/barrel | + 9.1 yuan/barrel | - 35.4 yuan/barrel | - 8.8 yuan/barrel | [16] 3.3 Related Charts - The report provides various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month - to - month spreads, inventory, and net position changes [17][29][42]