银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250729

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The recent egg price has stabilized at the current level, and the spot price is expected to strengthen seasonally. After the plum - rain season, the price is expected to bottom out and gradually rise during the pre - Mid - Autumn Festival food factory stocking period. However, considering the current relatively loose production capacity, the increase may be limited [9] 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Information - The average price in the main producing areas today is 3.26 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main selling areas is 3.43 yuan/jin, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. The national mainstream price is generally stable today [6] - In June, the national laying hen inventory was 1.34 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. The monthly hatchling volume of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises in June was 40.75 million, a month - on - month decrease of 9% and a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the estimated laying hen inventories from July to October 2025 are 1.349 billion, 1.353 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.343 billion respectively [7] - From July 25th, the national main producing area laying hen culling volume was 13.38 million, a decrease of 11% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens in the week of July 24th was 506 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [7] - As of July 24th, the egg sales volume in national representative selling areas was 8032 tons, a 1.8% increase from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.91 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.04 days, remaining unchanged from the previous week [7] - As of July 24th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.03 yuan/jin, a recovery of 0.45 yuan/jin from the previous week. On July 25th, the expected profit of laying hen farming was 13.97 yuan/feather, an increase of 2.06 yuan/jin from the previous week [8] - Today, the national culled hen price is stable, and the average price in the main producing areas is 5.77 yuan/jin, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [8] 3.2 Trading Logic - The recent egg price has stabilized at the current level, and the spot price is expected to strengthen seasonally. After the plum - rain season, the price is expected to bottom out and gradually rise during the pre - Mid - Autumn Festival food factory stocking period. However, considering the current relatively loose production capacity, the increase may be limited [9] 3.3 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Consider building long positions in the September contract when the safety margin is high [10] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Sell put options [10]