农产品日报-20250729

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn is expected to oscillate weakly. The 9 - month contract has reduced positions and adjusted, while the 1 - month contract has increased positions. The supply pressure in the spot market is increasing, and the market's bullish expectation is not strong. The import of corn continues to supply the market, and the price is expected to decline [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to decline. The CBOT soybean closed lower on Monday due to favorable weather in the US. The domestic soybean meal is weak, following the decline of the outer market. The expected reduction of Argentina's tariffs and overseas procurement by Chinese feed enterprises drag down the forward price of soybean meal [1]. - Oils are expected to oscillate. The BMD palm oil continues to be weak, with production increasing and exports decreasing. The domestic oil futures prices have declined, and the inventory pressure is still there. The market is mainly oscillating due to various factors [1]. - Eggs are expected to oscillate. After a previous rebound, the egg futures corrected. The spot price declined, and the short - term fundamentals are still bearish. However, in the long - term, the current breeding is at the bottom [1][2]. - Hogs are expected to oscillate. The hog futures corrected, and the spot price continued to weaken. The supply of hogs is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is in a weak fundamental situation, and the main contract has returned to the oscillating pattern [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Corn: The 9 - month contract of corn has reduced positions, and the 1 - month contract has increased positions. The supply pressure in the spot market is increasing, especially in the 8 - 9 month period. The price in the Northeast is stable, while that in North China is slightly weak. The import corn auction has a 28%成交 rate, and the market's bullish expectation is not strong. Technically, the 9 - month contract price has returned to the 2320 - 2330 yuan range, and the price is expected to decline [1]. - Soybean Meal: The CBOT soybean closed lower on Monday due to good weather in the US. The US soybean good rate is 70%, higher than expected. The domestic soybean meal is weak, following the outer market. The expected reduction of Argentina's tariffs and overseas procurement by Chinese feed enterprises drag down the forward price. The strategy is to focus on intraday trading [1]. - Oils: The BMD palm oil is weak due to the decline of vegetable oils and concerns about increased production. From July 1 - 25, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 5.52% compared to the same period last month, while the export decreased by 8.53%. The domestic oil futures prices have declined, and the inventory pressure is still there. The market is mainly oscillating [1]. - Eggs: After a previous rebound, the egg futures corrected. The main 2509 contract opened lower and then rebounded, and then declined again. The spot price declined, and the short - term fundamentals are still bearish. However, in the long - term, the current breeding is at the bottom [1][2]. - Hogs: The hog futures corrected, and the spot price continued to weaken. The supply of hogs is abundant, and the demand is weak due to high - temperature weather. The market is in a weak fundamental situation, and the main contract has returned to the oscillating pattern [2]. 3.2 Market Information - From July 1 - 25, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil increased by 6.08% compared to the same period last month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.10%, and the production increased by 5.52%. The export volume from July 1 - 25 is expected to be 684,308 tons, a decrease of 8.53% compared to the same period last month [3]. - As of the week of July 25, the soybean crushing volume of domestic main oil mills was 2.24 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons week - on - week, 250,000 tons month - on - month, an increase of 270,000 tons year - on - year, and an increase of 450,000 tons compared to the average of the past three years [3]. - It is estimated that the soybean crushing volume of national main oil mills in July will be about 10 million tons, still at a historical high. In August, with the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans, considering the risk of heat damage in summer, the oil mills are expected to maintain a high operating rate, and the monthly crushing volume will be about 9 million tons [4]. 3.3 Variety Spreads - The report presents the contract spreads and contract basis of various agricultural products, including corn, soybean, soybean meal, oil, eggs, and hogs, but does not provide specific analysis of these spreads [5][6][8][9][12][13][14][18][24][26].