MEG：短期将有回调能源化工

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term downward trend for ethylene glycol (MEG), with a recommended strategy of short - selling at high prices [5]. Core Viewpoints - This week, MEG prices increased due to the overall upward movement of commodities, driven by policy factors such as "anti - involution" and "capacity optimization." However, the fundamentals remained unchanged, with downstream polyester maintaining the current production cut plan. Next week, MEG is expected to decline, with an operating range of 4300 - 4500 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Views - Price Movement Reason: This week, MEG futures and spot prices rose with the overall commodity market, but the fundamentals were stable, and downstream polyester continued its production cut plan [5]. - Next - Week Forecast: Cost - wise, the results of US trade negotiations are a key concern, leading to weak crude oil price increases. Supply will increase as domestic and Saudi Arabian devices restart. Demand will remain stable as polyester maintains the current production level and weaving operations decline. Port inventory is expected to increase slightly. Overall, MEG is expected to decline, with an operating range of 4300 - 4500 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures Market: Weekly trading volume was 1.18 million lots, and open interest was 280,400 lots (+9,300 lots). From July 21st to July 28th, the closing price of the MEG main contract increased by 26 yuan/ton (0.59%), and the settlement price increased by 65 yuan/ton (1.48%) [9][11]. - Spot Market: The average basis this week was 57.40 yuan/ton, lower than last week's 68.80 yuan/ton. The domestic and international MEG prices remained inverted, with a spread of 70 - 110 US dollars/ton [12]. 3. MEG Device, Inventory, and Production Profit - Device Operation: The overall MEG operating rate was 62.40% from July 22nd to July 28th, up from 61.40% in the previous period. Oil - based, coal - based, and methanol - based operating rates were 63.94%, 60.07%, and 62.40% respectively. There were multiple device overhauls and restarts during the week [16][19]. - Production Profit: This week, the profit of coal - based MEG continued to rise slightly. The profits of MTO, coal - based, and ethylene - based production routes were - 1637.13 yuan/ton, 701.23 yuan/ton, and - 104.05 US dollars/ton respectively, compared with - 1657.42 yuan/ton, 649.11 yuan/ton, and - 115.65 US dollars/ton in the previous period [29][31]. - Inventory: As of July 24th, MEG port inventory was 420,400 tons, a decrease of 30,800 tons from the previous period. The decline in both hidden and visible inventories contributed to MEG's high ranking in the industry chain's price increase [35]. 4. Fundamental Analysis - Cost: The market is concerned about US tariff policies. The prices of raw materials such as crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, methanol, and thermal coal have an impact on MEG [42][43]. - Demand: Polyester factories did not further cut production. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 86.87%, and that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 58.26%. The prices of polyester products were mixed, with some products declining and others rising. The textile market was in a slow season, with weak demand and low production enthusiasm among factories [46][53]. - Market Sentiment: The positive commodity sentiment boosted the industry's confidence, and some downstream buyers actively purchased, resulting in a significant increase in polyester filament sales on Tuesday. However, overall, downstream buying intention was low, and the inventory of polyester factories continued to rise [55][57].