金信期货日刊-20250729

Group 1: Overall Core View - The report analyzes the market trends of multiple futures, including coking coal, stock index, gold, iron ore, glass, and palm oil [3][7][11] Group 2: Coking Coal Futures - Market Performance: On July 25, affected by policy expectations and production checks, some coking coal futures contracts had a "five - consecutive - board" increase, with prices soaring from 709 yuan/ton in early June to 1259 yuan/ton, a cumulative increase of 77.57%. However, that night, the Dalian Commodity Exchange issued position - limit measures, leading to a more than 10% plunge in the main contract [3] - Fundamentals: Previously, production in Shanxi and other places was affected by environmental protection and safety supervision, causing supply shortages. The rising futures prices also drove spot replenishment and hoarding. But regulatory measures such as limiting open positions and increasing handling fees were introduced to cool down the speculation [3] - Future Trend: In the short term, the market sentiment is unstable, and there may be a rebound if more funds enter. In the medium - to - long term, the regulatory attitude to curb excessive speculation is clear. Coal production capacity has room for release, imports from Mongolia and Russia have increased by 25%, and port coal stocks are high. Meanwhile, demand is weak, with construction steel usage shrinking by over 10% and steel mills having low acceptance of high coking coal prices. So, the price is likely to return to fundamental - driven and maintain a wide - range, slightly bullish oscillation [4] Group 3: Stock Index Futures - The A - share market opened lower and then rebounded on Monday, closing with a small positive line. The mid - year work conference aims to consolidate the stable and positive trend of the capital market. It is expected that the market will continue to oscillate at a high level [8][9] Group 4: Gold Futures - After the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and the reduction of the annual interest - rate cut expectation, gold prices adjusted. But the overall long - term trend remains positive. Currently, the weekly adjustment is sufficient, and it is likely to resume an upward trend, showing an oscillating upward pattern [12][13] Group 5: Iron Ore Futures - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and steel mills' profits are acceptable, so iron - water production remains high, and the industrial chain is in a positive feedback repair state. Technically, the daily - line has been declining, so cautious operation is needed to protect profits [17] Group 6: Glass Futures - The supply side has not seen significant losses and cold repairs, factory inventories are gradually decreasing, and downstream deep - processing orders have weak replenishment motivation. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and recent trends are more driven by news and sentiment. Technically, the price limit was hit today, so cautious operation and waiting for stabilization are recommended [21][22] Group 7: Palm Oil Futures - The new US renewable fuel policy increases the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving Chicago soybean oil to a contract high. Coupled with the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures, it will help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures. However, weak exports from Malaysia may limit the upward momentum [25]