Group 1 - The report indicates that from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the first half of 2025, China's GDP growth is expected to rebound significantly, driven by government spending expansion, stabilization in real estate sales, and a temporary boost from export demand [2][4][5] - The GDP growth forecast for the second half of 2025 is projected to slow down due to weakening export demand and rising tariff impacts, with GDP growth expected at 4.7% and 4.3% for the third and fourth quarters respectively, leading to an annual growth of 4.9% [2][8][9] - The report highlights that the real estate sector's contribution to GDP is declining, with its share dropping from 13-14% in 2022 to 9-10% in 2024, while the digital economy is growing but still needs to increase its share in the overall economy [4][5][7] Group 2 - The report notes that infrastructure investment and equipment investment are expected to maintain strong growth rates of 9.2% and 15.7% respectively in 2024, with further growth projected in the first half of 2025 [5][9] - The export environment is anticipated to face challenges, with a significant drop in exports to the US due to increased tariffs, which are expected to remain around 44.5% [33][34][38] - The report emphasizes the need for a balance between stabilizing growth and controlling inflation, particularly as the real estate sector continues to contract, impacting overall economic performance [7][9]
2H25中国经济展望：向内求，向前看
Bank of China Securities·2025-07-29 11:45