Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The DCE soybean meal main contract 2509 declined, while the DCE live hog main contract 2509 rose. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract also decreased. The US Midwest planting belt has favorable soil moisture due to rainfall this week, which is beneficial for crops. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories have increased, while the unexecuted contracts have decreased. The Argentine government has reduced the export tax on agricultural products, adding pressure to the market. The US soybean good-to-excellent rate has exceeded expectations, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest [2][3][4][5] - In the short term, CBOT soybean futures are expected to find support at 1000 cents. The domestic continuous soybean meal M09 contract may test the support level of 2920, and the spot price may stop falling and rebound, fluctuating within the range of 2850 - 2900. The live hog market is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, with prices changing according to the rhythm of slaughter and the entry and exit of secondary fattening [17][18][20] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Market Overview - The DCE soybean meal main 2509 contract fell by 0.23% to 2983 yuan/ton, and the coastal mainstream oil mills' quotes decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The DCE live hog main 2509 contract rose by 25 yuan/ton to 14150 yuan/ton. The national average ex-farm price of三元hogs was 13.89 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg. The overnight CBOT US soybean main contract fell by 1.00% to 1012 cents/bushel [2] 2. Weather in the Main Producing Areas - The US Midwest planting belt will have rain this week, with favorable soil moisture. The western and eastern regions will have scattered showers from Monday to Tuesday, with temperatures above normal until Tuesday. In the future, there will be scattered showers on Wednesday, mostly dry weather from Thursday to Friday, and scattered showers from Saturday to Sunday. The temperature will drop on Wednesday and be close to or below normal from Thursday to Sunday. The good soil moisture and rainfall can relieve crop stress [3] 3. Macroeconomic and Industry News - In the 30th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills increased by 0.52% week-on-week to 645.59 million tons, the soybean meal inventory increased by 4.48% week-on-week to 104.31 million tons, the unexecuted contracts decreased by 14.76% week-on-week to 423.01 million tons, and the apparent consumption of soybean meal decreased by 0.42% week-on-week to 170.19 million tons [4] - On July 29, the import cost of US soybeans was 4140 yuan, a decrease of 37 yuan from the previous day; the import cost of Brazilian soybeans was 3895 yuan, a decrease of 25 yuan; and the import cost of Argentine soybeans was 3670 yuan, a decrease of 19 yuan [4] - On July 28, the soybean meal trading volume of domestic mainstream oil mills increased slightly to 116000 tons, the spot trading volume increased to 63000 tons, and the basis trading volume increased to 53000 tons. The average trading price was 2910.57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.03 yuan/ton, hitting a nearly two-week low [5] - The Argentine government has reduced the export tax on agricultural products, including soybeans and their products. The soybean export tax has been reduced from 33% to 26%, and the soybean meal and soybean oil export tax has been reduced from 31% to 24.5% [5] - As of July 27, the US soybean good-to-excellent rate was 70%, higher than the previous week's 68% and last year's 67%, which surprised analysts who expected a decline [5] - In the fourth week of July 2025, Brazil exported a total of 10.4472 million tons of soybeans in 19 working days, with an average daily shipment of 549900 tons, a 12.41% increase compared to July last year [5] - As of the week ending July 24, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 409714 tons. So far this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume has reached 47.203279 million tons [6] - In June 2025, the slaughter volume of large-scale designated live hog slaughtering enterprises was 30.06 million head, a 6.5% decrease month-on-month and a 23.7% increase year-on-year. The cumulative slaughter volume in the first six months of this year was 183.55 million head, a 14.5% increase year-on-year [6] - In the first half of this year, the total social logistics volume in China was 171.3 trillion yuan, a 5.6% increase year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points higher than the GDP growth rate in the same period [6] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 96.9%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 3.1%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 35.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 62.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate cut is 2.0% [7] 4. Data Charts - The report provides charts on the prices of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang and DCE soybean meal futures, soybean meal basis, rapeseed meal in Nantong and CZCE rapeseed meal futures, rapeseed meal basis, live hogs in Henan and DCE live hog futures, live hog basis, Chinese soybean inventory, and Chinese soybean meal inventory [10][12][14][16] 5. Analysis and Strategies - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to the expected low temperature and timely rainfall in the US crop belt, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. The US soybean good-to-excellent rate reached 70% as of July 27, higher than the expected 67%. The domestic continuous soybean meal M09 contract continued to decline due to the impact of the external market and inventory pressure. In the short term, it may test the support level of 2920. Although the current inventory pressure of oil mills is large, the increase in import cost and seasonal consumption growth make the market expect the soybean meal price to rise. The short-term decline of the soybean meal spot price is limited, and it may stop falling and rebound, fluctuating within the range of 2850 - 2900. The market focus is on the Sino-US talks. If US soybeans cannot be imported, the market may import Argentine soybean meal to make up for the supply gap [17][18] - Live Hogs: On the supply side, the slaughter rhythm of the breeding end has gradually recovered since mid-July, and the proportion of large hog slaughter has accelerated in the southern region due to high temperature and rainy weather, increasing the supply. On the demand side, high temperature suppresses people's willingness to buy pork, and the off-take speed at the terminal is slow. The slaughterhouse operating rate has continued to decline but is higher than last year. Overall, the short-term supply increase and weak demand suppress price fluctuations, but as the price weakens, it may stimulate the breeding end to support the price and attract secondary fattening. The price is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, changing according to the rhythm of slaughter and the entry and exit of secondary fattening [20]
豆粕生猪：美豆优良率超预期，豆粕小幅回落
Jin Shi Qi Huo·2025-07-29 11:41