光大期货工业硅日报-20250729

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 28, polysilicon and industrial silicon both fluctuated weakly and hit the daily limit. The main polysilicon 2509 contract closed at 49,405 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 5.84%, and the position decreased by 18,873 lots to 136,000 lots. The main industrial silicon 2509 contract closed at 89,150 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 8%, and the position decreased by 44,246 lots to 279,000 lots [2]. - Industrial silicon is in the marginal game between coal mine disturbances and large - scale factory restarts, with limited callback space. Polysilicon faces the core contradiction between policy expectations and weak reality, and the trading logic of futures and spot deviates. After the policy fermentation period turns into a platform period, the over - heated speculative demand cools down and returns to the range - bound mode. The lowest cost pricing of the spot provides support for the futures, and the deep - decline space of the futures is limited [2]. - After the exchange adjusts the margin and handling fees, avoid heavy - position chasing up and selling down. Appropriate attention can be paid to the inter - month reverse spread space and PS/SI ratio arbitrage. Also, pay attention to the restart progress of industrial silicon and the policy promotion of polysilicon [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts decreased. The spot prices of most silicon grades decreased, and the lowest delivery product price dropped from 9,550 yuan/ton to 9,400 yuan/ton. The spot changed from a discount to a premium of 275 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 3,415 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 300 tons [4]. - Polysilicon: The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts decreased. The spot prices of various polysilicon materials increased, and the lowest delivery product price rose from 43,500 yuan/ton to 46,500 yuan/ton. The spot discount narrowed. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 0.7 million tons, and the social inventory remained unchanged [4]. - Organic Silicon: The DMC price in the East China market remained unchanged, the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,500 yuan/ton [4]. - Downstream Products: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices: The section includes charts of industrial silicon prices of various grades, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. - 3.2 Downstream Product Prices: The section contains charts of DMC prices, organic silicon product prices, polysilicon prices, silicon wafer prices, battery cell prices, and component prices [13][15][18]. - 3.3 Inventory: The section presents charts of industrial silicon futures inventory, factory warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][22]. - 3.4 Cost - profit: The section includes charts of the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [25][27][31]. 4. Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in the non - ferrous metals and new energy industries and have made contributions in research and customer service [33][34].