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广发证券(000776):跟踪分析报告:被低估的广发证券
Huachuang Securities·2025-07-29 12:03

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for GF Securities with a target price of 26.25 CNY [1] Core Views - GF Securities is considered undervalued, with significant potential for earnings recovery and valuation expansion in the context of the growing ETF market and the company's strategic positioning [6][39] - The company has a stable governance structure and a professional management team, which enhances its long-term strategic execution [9][12] - The report highlights the company's strong performance in the investment banking sector, with a projected net profit growth of 38% in 2024, significantly outperforming the industry average [34] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for GF Securities are as follows: - 2024: 27,199 million CNY - 2025: 33,517 million CNY (23% YoY growth) - 2026: 35,280 million CNY (5% YoY growth) - 2027: 37,867 million CNY (7% YoY growth) [1] - Projected net profit figures are: - 2024: 9,637 million CNY - 2025: 11,014 million CNY (14% YoY growth) - 2026: 11,801 million CNY (7% YoY growth) - 2027: 12,795 million CNY (8% YoY growth) [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2024: 1.15 CNY - 2025: 1.45 CNY - 2026: 1.55 CNY - 2027: 1.68 CNY [1] Governance Structure - GF Securities has a stable and decentralized ownership structure with no controlling shareholder, which has remained consistent since its listing in 2010 [9][12] - The top three shareholders collectively hold approximately 40% of the shares, providing a stable foundation for the company's governance [9] ETF Market Positioning - The report emphasizes GF Securities' strategic positioning in the ETF market, highlighting its three-dimensional approach: 1. Issuing and managing ETFs through its public fund subsidiaries [15] 2. Participating in ETF market-making, ranking second in the industry [29] 3. Utilizing ETFs as a core tool for investment advisory services, enhancing asset allocation efficiency [33] - The ETF market in China has seen explosive growth, with total assets reaching 4.31 trillion CNY in mid-2025, reflecting a 74% YoY increase [15][21] Investment Management Contribution - The investment management segment is a significant revenue contributor, accounting for nearly 30% of GF Securities' total revenue [21][25] - The company has maintained a strong market position in asset management, with its public fund subsidiaries holding substantial market shares [21][27] Valuation and Market Outlook - The current price-to-book (PB) ratio for GF Securities is significantly lower than the industry average, with H-shares at 0.98x and A-shares at 1.26x [39] - The report suggests that GF Securities has considerable room for valuation recovery, especially in light of the ongoing trends in passive investment and the anticipated recovery in its investment banking business [39]