“反内卷”系列专题之六：反内卷，破局的“妙招”有哪些？

Group 1: Employment Trends - In 2023, manufacturing employment is significantly above potential levels by 0.2 million, with its revenue share of GDP exceeding potential levels by 5.8%[1] - The employment share in manufacturing has increased by 6.2% compared to potential levels, indicating a pronounced "involution" phenomenon[1] - Conversely, the service sector has a significant employment gap of 0.4 million, with its employment share falling to -3.8% compared to potential levels[1] Group 2: Investment Insights - Manufacturing investment remains high despite declining revenues, indicating an "involution" in the sector[1] - The potential investment gap in the service sector is estimated to be around 1.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a mismatch with current demand[1] Group 3: Consumption Gaps - The gap in goods consumption compared to potential levels is approximately 640 billion yuan, while the gap in service consumption reaches nearly 30 trillion yuan[2] - In 2024, the per capita gap in service consumption is projected to be 2,093 yuan, highlighting a significant shortfall in service demand[2] Group 4: Policy Directions - Current policies are encouraging increased consumer time, which is expected to boost service demand, with a notable increase in holiday allowances[5] - The service sector is receiving policy support, with significant improvements in investment growth, particularly in the life services sector, which saw a growth rate of 15.3% in May, nearing the highest level since 2017[5]