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特朗普“威胁”下油价再度来到震荡区间上沿,但主要化工品种依然保持冷静
Tian Fu Qi Huo·2025-07-29 12:07

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's remarks on pressuring Russia briefly boosted oil prices, but the energy - chemical sector remained relatively calm under the strong performance of crude oil. The market is waiting for the results of the July Politburo meeting and whether there are any demand - side policies exceeding expectations [1][2] - If the anti - involution description in the meeting is mainly aimed at emerging downstream industries rather than upstream, and there is no compulsion or expansion, the anti - involution hype may end [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: Trump's remarks briefly boosted oil prices, but OPEC+ is accelerating production, and the supply pressure in the third quarter has increased sharply. The North American peak season is ending, and the U.S. refined oil has been accumulating inventory for two consecutive weeks, with future supply - demand pressure gradually emerging [3] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level中期 structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. It has reached the upper edge of the oscillation range, with short - term pressure at 520. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the hourly cycle when there is a volume - increasing reverse - wrapping negative line below the pressure [3] Styrene (EB) - Logic: Supply and operation have increased, port inventory has been continuously accumulating, and actual demand has not improved. New device production is approaching, so the fundamental driving force is bearish [5] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is declining. After hitting a new low at the opening, it rebounded and oscillated. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the 15 - minute cycle with a pressure level of 7400 [5] Rubber - Logic: Although the precipitation in Hainan and Southeast Asia has postponed the supply increase, the new round of typhoon is moving north, and supply increase is a certain path. The downstream tire inventory is at a historical high, so the demand is bearish. The current inventory is also at a high level [8] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level中期 structure is declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. After hitting a new low at the opening, it rebounded and oscillated. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the 15 - minute cycle with a pressure level of 15100 [8] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: Supply device operation has increased, and production has rebounded. The downstream tire inventory is at a historical high, so the demand is bearish. Although the recent arrival volume of butadiene is low, the medium - term fundamental pressure is still large [13] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level中期 structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. After hitting a new low at the opening, it rebounded and oscillated. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the 15 - minute cycle with a pressure level of 12000 [13] PX - Logic: Polyester operation continues to decline, demand expectations are pessimistic, supply operation is rising, and supply - demand is weak. It mainly follows the fluctuations of crude oil, which is expected to decline significantly [17] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. After a short - term rebound with reduced positions, the strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the 15 - minute cycle with a pressure level of 6975 [17] PTA - Logic: Short - term supply - demand changes are small, inventory levels are not high, and short - term fundamental contradictions are not significant. It mainly follows the fluctuations of crude oil, which is expected to decline significantly [21] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. After a short - term rebound with reduced positions, the strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the 15 - minute cycle with a pressure level of 4855 [21] PP - Logic: Downstream demand is sluggish, supply - side operation fluctuates slightly, but previous maintenance devices will restart and new production capacity will be put into use, so supply pressure is expected to continue. Inventory has been continuously accumulating, and the fundamental driving force is bearish [24] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. After a small rebound with reduced positions, the strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the 15 - minute cycle with a pressure level of 7165 [24] Methanol - Logic: Domestic supply is at a high level, downstream demand is weak, port inventory is continuously accumulating, and short - term fundamentals are average. Attention should be paid to the cost side and recent sentiment drivers [27] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level中期 structure is declining/oscillating, and the short - term structure is declining. After a rebound with reduced positions, the strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the hourly cycle when there is a volume - increasing reverse - wrapping negative line [27] PVC - Logic: Supply has increased, demand in the off - season is still sluggish, inventory has been continuously accumulating, and the anti - involution sentiment has declined significantly. It should be treated bearishly [31] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level中期 structure is rising, and the hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. After a rebound with reduced positions, the strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the 15 - minute cycle with a pressure level of 5210 [31] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Operation has slightly decreased, demand is weak, and there are both short - term low - inventory and medium - term inventory - accumulation expectations. The anti - involution sentiment has declined significantly. It should be treated bearishly [34] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level中期 structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level short - term structure is oscillating. After a small rebound, the strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the hourly cycle when there is a volume - increasing reverse - wrapping negative line [34] Plastic - Logic: Maintenance devices will restart in late July, operation is rising, downstream demand is weak, and the anti - involution sentiment has declined significantly. It should be treated bearishly [36] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level中期 structure is oscillating/declining, and the hourly - level structure is oscillating. After a small rebound, the strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities on the hourly cycle when there is a volume - increasing reverse - wrapping negative line [36]