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势如破竹,固收加规模强势增长
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-07-29 12:05
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q2 2025, the scale of fixed - income plus funds continued to grow, and the inflow of funds was expected to continue due to the bond market under - allocation and the upward movement of equities. Convertible bond funds and fixed - income plus funds still had strong support [4][6]. - Brokers significantly increased their positions in convertible bonds, while public funds and insurance funds actively reduced their positions on the whole. The behavior of brokers was different from that of public funds and insurance funds, with brokers more likely to increase positions in a bull market and the latter reducing positions when the convertible bond valuation was high [10][12]. - Public funds continued to reduce their positions in bank convertible bonds and sought bottom - position substitutes. Other convertible bonds in the financial sector and those in the public utilities sector received certain increases in positions [19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Growth of Fixed - Income Plus Fund Shares with Market Support - In Q2 2025, fixed - income plus funds had a net subscription of 56.41 billion shares. Among them, first - tier bond funds had a net subscription of 52.548 billion shares, second - tier bond funds had a net subscription of 7.774 billion shares, and partial - debt hybrid funds had a net redemption of 3.68 billion shares, with the net redemption volume further decreasing compared to Q1 2025. Convertible bond funds had a net redemption of 2.164 billion shares, slightly higher than that in Q1 2025 but with relatively low net redemption pressure compared to Q4 2024 [4][6]. - In Q2 2025, the positions of convertible bond funds and fixed - income plus funds in equity - related assets decreased slightly. The reasons might include the tariff event in early April, profit - taking in May and June, and the reduction in the scope of investable targets in the convertible bond market [8]. 3.2. Public Funds and Insurance Funds Reduce Positions Marginally, while Brokers Increase Positions in Convertible Bonds - Brokers significantly increased their positions in convertible bonds in February, March, May, and June 2025, while public funds and insurance funds actively reduced their positions when the convertible bond valuation was high. With the convertible bond market hitting a new high and the equity market at a relatively high level, there was a need to be cautious about possible valuation drops [10][12]. - From January to June 2025, the positions of funds, insurance, and social security in convertible bonds decreased, while those of brokers' self - operation and asset management increased. The positions of convertible bond ETFs had net outflows in April and May and recovered significantly after late June [12][13][15]. 3.3. Analysis of Public Fund Holdings - In terms of industry distribution, public funds continued to reduce their positions in bank convertible bonds in Q2 2025 due to the forced redemption of Nanyin Convertible Bond, Hangyin Convertible Bond, Qilu Convertible Bond, and the approaching maturity of Pufa Convertible Bond. Other convertible bonds in the financial sector and those in the public utilities sector received certain increases in positions [19]. - Public funds increased their positions in some high - elasticity varieties such as those in the electronics, computer, communication, pharmaceutical, and food and beverage sectors, which might benefit from the structural market of technology, medicine, and consumption sectors. The positions in convertible bonds of the basic chemical and building materials industries also increased [21]. - In addition to financial bottom - position convertible bonds such as bank convertible bonds, public funds increased their positions in high - prosperity and high - elasticity targets such as Outong Convertible Bond, Wentai Convertible Bond, Shenma Convertible Bond, and Hengbang Convertible Bond [26].