棉花：美棉小幅上涨，郑棉继续下行

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoint - The Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) futures continued to decline, with the main 2509 contract falling 1.07% to 13,925 yuan/ton, breaking below the 14,000 yuan mark. The lack of strong support for Zhengmian prices is due to weak procurement willingness from downstream enterprises. The ICE cotton rose 0.1% overnight, closing at 68.3 cents/pound. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impact of external market trends, China-US economic and trade negotiations, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, and domestic policy directions [2]. - Internationally, the US Treasury's borrowing expectation in the third quarter has exceeded one trillion, an 82% increase. After the debt ceiling was raised, debt issuance accelerated. The auction of 5-year US Treasury bonds was unexpectedly weak, with overseas demand hitting a three-year low. The impact of the raised US debt ceiling on the second-half interest rate cuts is worth monitoring. The China-US economic and trade talks in Stockholm on July 28 are important for normalizing bilateral relations in the second half and bring some imagination space to the market. Globally, due to factors such as continuous loose cotton supply and demand and weak US cotton export demand, international cotton prices remain in a weak consolidation state. Domestically, although the de-stocking trend of commercial cotton inventories is positive, the inventory level remains high. There is a high possibility of a bumper new cotton harvest this year, and combined with the weak demand, the upside space for Zhengmian is limited [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The main 2509 contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures fell 1.07%, closing at 13,925 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price continued to decline and broke below the 14,000 yuan mark. The ICE cotton rose 0.1% overnight, closing at 68.3 cents/pound. Downstream enterprises have weak procurement willingness, and Zhengmian prices lack strong support. Future attention should be paid to external market trends, China-US economic and trade negotiations, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, and domestic policy directions [2]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - On July 29, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 9,504 (-72) sheets, including 9,156 (-70) registered warehouse receipts and 348 (-2) valid forecasts [3]. - From July 21 - 25, 2025, the weekly average price of domestic 32-count pure cotton carded yarn was 20,890 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 174 yuan/ton; the weekly average price of Indian 32-count pure cotton carded yarn was 20,956 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 108 yuan/ton; the weekly average price of Vietnamese 32-count pure cotton carded yarn was 20,702 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 86 yuan/ton [5]. - As of the week ending July 27, the budding rate of US cotton was 80% (compared to 86% last year and a five-year average of 83%, and 71% the previous week), the bolling rate was 44% (33% the previous week, 52% last year, and a five-year average of 46%), and the good-to-excellent rate was 55% (49% last year) [5]. - Brazil exported 111,700 tons of cotton in the first four weeks of July, with a daily average export volume of 5,900 tons, a 19% decrease compared to the daily average export volume of 7,300 tons in July last year. The total export volume in July last year was 167,200 tons [5]. - Last week, Xinjiang cotton was in the peak flowering and bolling stage, with some areas in Turpan already in the boll-opening and lint-releasing stage. High temperatures and low precipitation in most parts of the region were unfavorable for cotton growth. The development period of cotton was advanced due to high temperatures, increasing the proportion of pre-dog days peaches and raising the risk of premature aging [5]. - Recently, there was light rainfall in some cotton-growing areas in Argentina, with the most concentrated area receiving 45mm of rainfall, slowing down the new cotton picking progress. In the short term, the weather in the cotton-growing areas is expected to clear up, with rising temperatures promoting the resumption of picking operations. As of mid-July, the new cotton harvest progress in Argentina was 75%, 15 percentage points slower than the same period last year, and the total output may be between 250,000 - 270,000 tons [6]. 3.3 Data Charts - The report includes charts of CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spreads, textile profits, cotton import profits,棉纱 import profits, warehouse receipt quantities, and non-commercial positions [6][7][10][11]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, the US Treasury's borrowing expectation in the third quarter has exceeded one trillion, an 82% increase. After the debt ceiling was raised, debt issuance accelerated. The auction of 5-year US Treasury bonds was unexpectedly weak, with overseas demand hitting a three-year low. The impact of the raised US debt ceiling on the second-half interest rate cuts is worth monitoring. The China-US economic and trade talks in Stockholm on July 28 are important for normalizing bilateral relations in the second half and bring some imagination space to the market [13]. - Globally, due to factors such as continuous loose cotton supply and demand and weak US cotton export demand, international cotton prices remain in a weak consolidation state. Domestically, although the de-stocking trend of commercial cotton inventories is positive, the inventory level remains high. There is a high possibility of a bumper new cotton harvest this year, and combined with the weak demand, the upside space for Zhengmian is limited [13].