中国房地产周报：保持观望-20250729

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the real estate sector, suggesting a cautious approach to investment in the current market conditions [7]. Core Insights - New home sales continue to decline year-on-year, with a 16.8% drop in the last week compared to the same period last year, indicating a worsening trend in the market [1][14]. - The cumulative transaction volume of new homes in first-tier cities shows a narrowing year-on-year growth rate, with Beijing down 1.6%, Shanghai up 0.6%, Guangzhou up 14.4%, and Shenzhen up 14.3% [2][18]. - The inventory-to-sales ratio for commercial housing is rising, with the top ten cities showing a ratio of 129.8, indicating a growing supply relative to sales [3][24]. - Land transaction volume has significantly decreased, with a 48.6% year-on-year drop in the last week, reflecting a challenging environment for land acquisition [4][28]. - The report highlights the recent issuance of the "Housing Rental Regulations" by the State Council, aimed at stabilizing the rental market and promoting high-quality development [5][35]. Summary by Sections New Home Sales - The transaction volume of new homes in 30 major cities reached 1.4 million square meters, down 16.8% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing declines of -26.1%, -6.9%, and -25.2% respectively [1][14]. - Cumulative sales in first-tier cities have shown a decrease, with Beijing at 298 million square meters, Shanghai at 620 million square meters, Guangzhou at 417 million square meters, and Shenzhen at 172 million square meters [2][18]. Inventory and Sales Ratios - The inventory-to-sales ratio for commercial housing in the top ten cities is 129.8, up from 101.3 a year ago, indicating an oversupply situation [3][24]. - First-tier cities have a ratio of 79.6, while second-tier cities have a significantly higher ratio of 217.5 [3][24]. Land Transactions - The land transaction area in 100 major cities was 13.49 million square meters, down 48.6% year-on-year, with first-tier cities experiencing a 95.5% drop [4][28]. Policy Developments - The "Housing Rental Regulations" aim to standardize rental activities and protect the rights of parties involved, effective from September 15 [5][35]. - Recent policies from various cities, including adjustments to housing loan standards, indicate a focus on stimulating the housing market [36]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng China Mainland Property Index rose 3.7%, outperforming the broader market, with state-owned enterprises leading the gains [6][37]. - The report suggests maintaining a watchful stance on investments, particularly favoring quality state-owned and local state-owned developers [7][39].