“十四五”期间证券行业发展趋势分析：收入规模稳定增长，业务板块表现分化

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the securities industry Core Insights - The securities industry in China is experiencing stable revenue growth, with a clear path for high-quality development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2][14] - The capital market reforms are deepening, leading to accelerated consolidation within the securities industry [3][41] - The competitive landscape is being reshaped, with significant differentiation in performance across various business segments [4][42] Summary by Sections 1. Capital Market Reform and Development - Continuous improvement in the capital market system is evident, enhancing the ability to serve the real economy [14][19] - The "New National Nine Articles" issued in April 2024 outlines a clear development blueprint for the capital market over the next five years [15][16] 2. Industry Revenue and Growth - The securities industry is showing a "two rises and two falls" trend, with an increase in company scale and revenue, but a decrease in operating leverage and ROE compared to the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [23][29] - The number of listed securities firms has increased from 44 in early 2021 to 47 by the end of 2024, with total assets growing from 8.55 trillion to 12.75 trillion yuan [29] 3. Competitive Landscape and Mergers - The leading securities firms maintain a strong profitability advantage, although the gap is narrowing [34][37] - Mergers and acquisitions are accelerating, with a notable increase in significant asset restructuring transactions since September 2024 [38][41] 4. Business Segment Performance - The revenue share of heavy asset businesses has significantly increased, with investment income becoming the main driver for leading firms [43][44] - IPO business is under pressure, reflecting a "stock-bond seesaw" trend, while traditional brokerage business is declining, necessitating a shift towards advisory services [4][5][42] - Asset management business faces dual pressure on scale and income, while international business revenue share is increasing [5][42] 5. Financial Technology and Innovation - Financial technology is expected to enhance service quality and efficiency across the securities industry, with AI driving innovation in business ecosystems [4][11]