银河期货农产品日报-20250729

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Apple Daily Report [2] - Date: July 29, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji apple price index: 110.58, down 0.76 from the previous trading day [3] - 6 - fruit average wholesale price: 7.16, up 0.02 from the previous trading day [3] Futures Prices - AP01: 7792, down 103 from yesterday's close [3] - AP05: 7846, down 61 from yesterday's close [3] - AP10: 7908, down 144 from yesterday's close [3] Basis - Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01: 108, up 103 from the previous trading day [3] - Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP05: 54, up 61 from the previous trading day [3] - Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP10: - 8.0, up 144 from the previous trading day [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Apple Market News - As of July 23, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in major producing areas was 70.45 tons, a decrease of 10.15 tons from last week, with similar shipment speed and basically the same as last year [4] - In June 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 1.87 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.32% and a year - on - year increase of 6.37%. The cumulative import volume from January to June 2025 was 6.90 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.63%. The export volume in June 2025 was about 3.70 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55% [6] - Yesterday, the overall apple market in the producing areas was stable, with stable prices. Cold - storage merchants were still highly motivated to ship, and the number of purchasing merchants increased slightly. The quality of early - maturing apples in the western producing areas was average, and prices varied greatly according to quality [6] - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants was 0.7 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin from last week [6] - The mainstream price of apples in Qixia, Shandong was stable. The price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's film - red apples was 3.0 - 3.8 yuan/jin, and striped apples were 3.0 - 4.2 yuan/jin. Merchants' film - red apples were 3.8 - 4.2 yuan/jin, and striped apples were 3.8 - 4.8 yuan/jin. The mainstream price of 70 fruit was 2.5 - 2.7 yuan/jin, and the third - grade fruit was 2.5 - 2.6 yuan/jin, with the uniform - grade goods priced at 3.0 - 3.3 yuan/jin [7] Trading Logic - In the spot market, the current inventory is low, the market demand is in the off - season, and the spot shipment is average. The new - season apple production is expected to change little from this season. Before the new - season apples are listed, the supply is low and the demand is weak, with little supply - demand contradiction, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Generally, adopt a long - on - dips strategy [9] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [9] - Options: Sell put options [9] Group 4: Related Attachments - There are 10 related figures in the report, including the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bag 70 apples, the basis of AP contracts, the spread between different AP contracts, the arrival volume of apples in wholesale markets, 6 - fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple shipment volume [13][15][21]