银河期货沥青日报-20250729

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Report Date: July 29, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Wu Xiaorong [3] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03108405 [3] - Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0021537 [3] Group 2: Related Data Futures Price and Position - BU2509 (Main Contract) Price: 3619 yuan, up 50 yuan or 1.40% from the previous day [2] - BU2510 Price: 3598 yuan, up 56 yuan or 1.58% [2] - BU2511 Price: 3556 yuan, up 57 yuan or 1.63% [2] - SC2509 Price: 515.0 yuan, up 9.1 yuan or 1.80% [2] - Brent First Line Price: 70.06 US dollars, up 1.2 US dollars or 1.77% [2] - Main Contract Position: 14.2 million lots, down 2.1 million lots or -12.73% [2] - Main Contract Trading Volume: 20.9 million lots, down 1.6 million lots or -7.13% [2] - Warehouse Receipt Quantity: 82,180 tons, unchanged [2] Basis and Spread - BU10 - 11 Spread: 42.00 yuan, down 1.00 yuan or -2.33% [2] - BU09 - 10 Spread: 21.00 yuan, down 6.00 yuan or -22.22% [2] - Shandong - Main Contract Basis: 112.00 yuan, down 56.00 yuan or -33.33% [2] - East China - Main Contract Basis: 72.00 yuan, down 56.00 yuan or -43.75% [2] - South China - Main Contract Basis: -48.00 yuan, down 56.00 yuan or -700.00% [2] Industrial Chain Spot Price - Shandong Low - end Asphalt Price: 3580 yuan, unchanged [2] - East China Low - end Asphalt Price: 3670 yuan, unchanged [2] - South China Low - end Asphalt Price: 3550 yuan, unchanged [2] - Shandong Gasoline Price: 7795 yuan, up 39.00 yuan or 0.50% [2] - Shandong Diesel Price: 6675 yuan, up 37.00 yuan or 0.56% [2] - Shandong Petroleum Coke Price: 2800 yuan, unchanged [2] - Diluted Asphalt Discount: -5.3, unchanged [2] - Exchange Rate Intermediate Price: 7.1511, up 0.0044 or 0.06% [2] Spread and Profit - Asphalt Refinery Profit: -132.48 yuan, down 46.00 yuan or -53.19% [2] - Refined Oil Comprehensive Profit: 375.19 yuan, down 32.05 yuan or -7.87% [2] - BU - SC Crack Spread: -575.43 yuan, down 16.87 yuan or -3.02% [2] - Gasoline Spot - Brent Spread: 1029.68 yuan, down 33.19 yuan or -3.12% [2] - Diesel Spot - Brent Spread: 728.53 yuan, down 34.96 yuan or -4.58% [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Market Overview - National Asphalt Average Price on July 29: 3850 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03% [5] - Shandong Market: Mainstream transaction price stable at 3700 - 3960 yuan/ton, short - term price trend weak [5] - Yangtze River Delta Market: Mainstream transaction price stable at 3750 - 3800 yuan/ton, short - term price may be cautiously stable [5] - South China Market: Mainstream transaction price stable at 3560 - 3580 yuan/ton, short - term price weakly stable [6] Market Outlook - In the third quarter, supply - side elasticity is limited, and demand will determine the de - stocking intensity in the peak season [7] - In the short term, affected by southern rainfall, demand is weak, and asphalt prices are expected to fluctuate, with the crack spread oscillating strongly [7] - The operating range of the BU main contract is expected to be 3500 - 3700 [7] Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures include BU main contract closing price, position, asphalt market prices in East China and Shandong, and gasoline and diesel prices in Shandong refineries [9]