供应继续承压，盘面震荡运行

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "【生猪日报】供应继续承压 盘面震荡运行" [5] - Report Date: July 29, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The supply of live pigs continues to face pressure, and the spot price has limited upside potential with a risk of decline due to high inventory levels [3][6]. - The futures market has shown a decline, influenced by a high - level meeting with limited impact, and the price increase is restricted by supply and production pressure [6]. - The current price reflects the fundamentals of the pig market, with limited overall changes expected [6]. Group 4: Market Data Summary Spot Prices - Today, the average spot price of live pigs was 13.23 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from yesterday. Prices in most regions declined, with Inner Mongolia seeing the largest drop of 0.2 yuan/kg [3]. Futures Prices - Among futures contracts, LH07 rose 525 points to 14,525, while LH01 fell 95 points to 14,400 [3]. Piglet and Sow Prices - Piglet prices dropped from 440 to 429, while sow prices remained unchanged at 1628 [3]. Breeding Profits - Self - breeding and self - raising profits decreased from 90.89 to 62.16 yuan/head, and profits from purchasing piglets decreased from - 18.66 to - 71.39 yuan/head [3]. Slaughter Volume - The slaughter volume decreased from 137,328 to 136,628 heads [3]. Contract Spreads - The spread of LH7 - 9 increased from - 125 to 375, and LH9 - 1 increased from - 370 to - 250 [3]. Size - based Pig Price Spreads - The spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs decreased from 0.41 to 0.4, and the spread between large pigs and medium - sized pigs increased from 0.06 to 0.1 [3]. Group 5: Market Analysis - Supply: After the previous price increase, the market supply situation has improved, but the overall supply remains relatively abundant. Scale enterprises may face some pressure to sell, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average [3]. - Price Outlook: The upside potential of spot prices is limited, and there is still pressure for a decline. The futures market is expected to have support, but near - month contracts may face pressure [6]. Group 6: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Go long on far - month contracts at low prices and short near - month contracts at high prices [7]. - Arbitrage: Conduct LH91 reverse arbitrage [7]. - Options: Sell far - month put options [7].