Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The agricultural product sector shows mixed trends. Cotton is in a downward trend due to good harvest expectations and weak downstream demand, while soybean oil has risen strongly, driven by the increase in international crude oil prices and export news. Apple prices have declined, and soybean meal remains in a downward trend. Other products such as palm oil, sugar, and jujube show different price movements based on various influencing factors [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Cotton has reversed and fallen into a downward trend because of good weather in Xinjiang's cotton - growing areas, increasing harvest expectations, and weak downstream demand. Soybean oil has risen strongly, boosted by the increase in international crude oil prices and export news. Apple has declined, and soybean meal is still in a downward trend due to abundant imported soybeans and high oil - mill operating rates [1]. 2. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Cotton - Focus: The main 2509 contract of cotton has fallen sharply, accelerating the downward trend, pressured by the expected bumper harvest of new cotton and weak downstream demand. - Reason: In Xinjiang, the cotton growth situation is good, with an expected bumper harvest. The downstream textile industry is in the off - season, with insufficient orders, slow production and sales, and increased finished - product inventory, reducing the purchasing willingness for cotton. - Technical analysis: The 2509 contract has broken through key levels, with a MACD dead - cross and enlarged green bars. - Strategy: Sell on rallies. The support for the 2509 contract is 13760, and the resistance is 13980 [2]. (2) Soybean Oil - Focus: The main 2509 contract of soybean oil has risen strongly, reaching a new stage high, boosted by the increase in crude oil prices and export news. - Reason: The sharp rebound of international crude oil has boosted the oil market. There are news of soybean oil export orders in the domestic market, which may relieve inventory pressure. However, as of the 30th weekend, the domestic soybean oil inventory was 126.34 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.11% and a year - on - year increase of 0.53%. - Technical analysis: The 2509 contract has reached a new high this year, with all moving averages in a bullish arrangement and an enlarged MACD red bar. - Strategy: Go long with a light position. The support for the 2509 contract is 8116, and the resistance is 8280 [3]. (3) Soybean Meal - Focus: The 2509 contract of soybean meal has continued to fall, maintaining a downward trend. - Reason: Good weather in the US soybean - growing areas has led to expectations of a bumper harvest, causing a sharp decline in US soybeans and driving down the price of domestic soybean meal. The import of soybeans may improve due to the Sino - US economic and trade talks. As of the 30th weekend, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 107.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.34%. It is expected that the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills in July will reach about 10 million tons. - Technical analysis: The 2509 contract has fallen below the 60 - day moving average, remaining in a downward trend. - Strategy: Go short with a light position. The support for the 2509 contract is 2960, and the resistance is 2995 [5]. (4) Palm Oil - Focus: The main 2509 contract of palm oil has first declined and then risen, showing a relatively strong performance, boosted by the increase in crude oil prices. - Reason: The sharp rebound of international crude oil has increased the attractiveness of palm oil as a biodiesel raw material. Indonesia's inventory is at a low level, and the monthly consumption of palm oil in the biodiesel sector exceeds one million tons. In Malaysia, from July 1 - 25, palm oil production increased by 5.52% month - on - month, while exports decreased by 9 - 15% month - on - month. - Technical analysis: The 2509 contract has a long lower - shadow阳线, with all moving averages in a bullish arrangement. - Strategy: Go long with a light position. The support for the 2509 contract is 8900, and the resistance is 9050 [7]. (5) Live Pigs - Focus: The 2509 contract of live pigs has had a small rebound but closed with a long negative line, showing a weak trend. - Reason: Recently, the slaughter sentiment of the breeding side has been strong, and the supply of live pigs in the market is abundant. The demand side is weak, affected by high - temperature weather, the summer vacation, and alternative consumption. - Technical analysis: The 2509 contract has closed with a negative line, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average. - Strategy: Close long positions and go short with a light position. The support for the 2509 contract is 14025, and the resistance is 14255 [9]. (6) Corn - Focus: The main 2509 contract of corn has oscillated and fallen, showing a weak trend. - Reason: The continuous auction of imported corn by CGS, the substitution advantage of wheat in some areas, the listing of spring corn, and the high - temperature and humid weather have increased the supply pressure on corn. - Technical analysis: The 2509 contract has oscillated and fallen, with the price below the moving - average system. - Strategy: Go short with a light position. The support for the 2509 contract is 2280, and the resistance is 2300 [11]. (7) Sugar - Focus: The main 2509 contract of Zhengzhou sugar has risen strongly, recovering most of the previous day's decline, boosted by the rise in the external market and the domestic peak - demand season. - Reason: The rebound of the external raw - sugar futures price has driven up Zhengzhou sugar. The domestic sugar sales rate is relatively fast, and it is currently in the summer consumption peak season, with low inventory further reduced. Although the import of sugar has increased, it is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period. - Technical analysis: The 2509 contract has risen strongly, with the price above the moving - average system and a continuous MACD red bar. - Strategy: Go long with a light position. The support for the 2509 contract is 5841, and the resistance is 5893 [15]. (8) Eggs - Focus: The main 2509 contract of eggs has first declined and then risen, closing with a positive line but remaining in a downward trend. - Reason: The supply side has a high inventory of laying hens, slow capacity reduction, and cautious purchasing by traders. The demand side has a delayed seasonal peak and general demand. - Technical analysis: The 2509 contract has opened low and closed high, but the price is still below the moving - average system. - Strategy: Go short with a light position. The support for the 2509 contract is 3550, and the resistance is 3600 [16][18]. (9) Jujubes - Focus: The main 2601 contract of jujubes has oscillated and risen, showing a relatively strong performance. - Reason: Xinjiang's jujube trees are in the physiological fruit - dropping stage. The estimated new - jujube output is 56 - 62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20 - 25% and a 5 - 10% decrease compared to normal years. The consumption side is in the traditional off - season, but consumption is expected to improve over time. - Technical analysis: The 2601 contract has oscillated and risen, with the price above the moving - average system. - Strategy: Go long on dips. The support for the 2601 contract is 10605, and the resistance is 10900 [19]. (10) Apples - Focus: The main 2510 contract of apples has fallen sharply after a violent oscillation the previous day, showing a weakening trend. - Reason: The inventory of apples is limited, and storage merchants are increasing sales. The listing volume of early - maturing apples has increased, with problems such as slow coloring and serious green - returning in some areas, leading to continuous price drops. - Technical analysis: The 2510 contract has fallen sharply, breaking below the 10 - day moving average. - Strategy: Close long positions and pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average. The support for the 2510 contract is 7848, and the resistance is 7930 [21].
天富期货棉花大跌、豆油劲升
Tian Fu Qi Huo·2025-07-29 12:28